Attacks Are Only Going to Strengthen Hand of Hamas

Israel's hammer blow against Hamas in the Gaza Strip bears all the hallmarks of its doctrine of overwhelming force. But it was met by furious Arab warnings that the onslaught would lead to all-out war and a new wave of suicide bombings.

The attacks followed a decision by caretaker Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to widen reprisals for cross-border rocket attacks on Israel, which restarted after the expiry of a shaky six-month ceasefire just over a week ago.

Hamas leaders may have been shocked but can hardly have been surprised by the onslaught. Israel's foreign minister, Tzipi Livni, warned in Cairo on Thursday that Israel "cannot tolerate" continuing attacks. after some 50 rockets or mortars were fired from the Gaza Strip.

Livni's high-profile visit to Egypt was seen as part of an diplomatic offensive to prepare for an attack. Mixed signals confused the picture, perhaps deliberately: on Friday, Israel reopened border crossings into Gaza to allow the delivery of fuel, food and humanitarian supplies.

There was immediate outrage at the raids from Egypt and Jordan as well as the Palestinian Authority, Hamas's rival, which is based in the West Bank town of Ramallah and backed by the West.

President Abbas had been hoping that talks with Israel would acquire new momentum once Barack Obama takes office and engages with the near-moribund peace process. But polls shows that Binyamin Netanyahu, leader of the right-wing Likud, is likely to beat Livni's centrist Kadima party in February's elections.

Prospects for revived talks must have now diminished further. Livni and Netanyahu have both pledged to work to bring down Hamas, which has controlled Gaza since the summer of 2007, two years after Israel unilaterally evacuated its settlements and withdrew its forces.

Israeli officials routinely portray the Islamist movement as a tool of Syria and Iran - which do back it - but play down the support and legitimacy it has won, not least in making progress in 15 years of negotiations with Israel.

Ron Ben-Yishai, an Israeli military analyst, called the raid "a limited move aimed at securing a long-term ceasefire between Hamas and Israel on terms that are favorable to Israel".

The looming election is another reason Israel is not keen to expose its forces to casualties but prefers to use its unchallenged aerial superiority.

It is hard to gauge Hamas's popularity, but first signs were that the raids will rally support. "This is nothing short of a massacre, an outrage," the Palestinian independent Hanan Ashrawi told the BBC from Ramallah. "The cycle of violence is generated by the occupation and by the ongoing state of siege that is attempting to collectively punish a whole people.

"This will enhance the standing of Hamas. People are sympathizing with Hamas as the people who are being ruthlessly targeted by Israel. They are seen as victims of ongoing Israeli aggression."