Ethiopia Says Its Troops Will Leave Somalia

Ethiopia has announced plans to withdraw all of its troops from Somalia by the end of year, raising the possibility of a complete takeover of the country by Islamist groups.

Thousands of Ethiopian soldiers were sent into Somalia two years ago to back the weak interim government. But after ousting the Islamic Courts Union, which controlled the capital Mogadishu, the army has become bogged down in a guerilla war that has claimed more than 10,000 lives.

Amid growing human and financial costs, the Ethiopian foreign minister Seyoum Mesfin wrote to the UN secretary general Ban Ki-moon and the African Union this week informing them of the decision.

"Regardless of what happens, we have decided to withdraw our troops from Somalia at the end of the year," Wahide Belay, a spokesman for the Ethiopian foreign ministry, said yesterday.

Ethiopia only retains a significant military presence in parts of Mogadishu and the parliamentary seat, Baidoa. Islamist groups control the rest of south and central Somalia. About 3,000 African Union peace keepers are also stationed in the capital. Ethiopia has expressed repeated frustration at the inability of President Abdullahi Yusuf's government to end its infighting and establish credible state institutions. It has also accused the international community of abandoning it by failing to deploy an effective peacekeeping force of at least 8,000 troops - either from the African Union or the UN.

Only the US offered strong support for Ethiopia's initial deployment of troops into Somalia in December 2006, sharing concerns that the Islamic Courts Union had links to terror organizations. Many other countries believed that engagement with the Islamists, whose leaders included both moderates and hardliners, offered Somalia the best chance of peace since the onset of anarchy in 1991.

Some western diplomats based in the Kenyan capital, Nairobi, who have been following the situation in Somalia, remain skeptical as to whether Ethiopia will leave as planned, and say the withdrawal threat may be designed to try and secure funds to enable the country's troops to stay on. "I am not sure this is not a bluff along the lines of 'Pay us to stay or we are off'," said one diplomat. "The US is terrified of a Somali Islamic state and may persuade Ethiopia to stay with a promise of assistance and a new push for UN peace keepers".

One glimmer of hope is the tentative agreement in Djibouti this week between Yusuf's government and the Alliance for the Re-liberation of Somalia, a moderate Islamist organization, to share power in an expanded government. While other hardline Islamists groups rejected the deal, analysts say that if the Ethiopians do withdraw there is scope for the population to back the proposed new authority.