Piracy 'will Worsen Unless Yemen and Somalia Are Made Stable'

Piracy in the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean is likely to get worse unless the instability in Yemen and Somali are resolved, according to two separate warnings issued today.

The thinktank Chatham House said in a report that regional stability was threatened by the fragile and unpredictable state of Yemen. The report, Yemen: fear of failure, said political upheaval in the country would lead to an increase in piracy "with implications for the security of shipping routes and the transit of oil through the Suez canal".

Yemen's government was relying on new oil finds to boost its troubled economy but pirates put this in jeopardy. "The rising number of piracy attacks in the Gulf of Aden has the potential to inhibit offshore oil exploration and disrupt liquefied natural gas shipping," it said.

The report details the "potent combination of problems" in Yemen including civil war, terrorism, corruption and uncertainty about who will succeed Ali Abdullah Saleh, the 66-year-old president. "It [Yemen] is the poorest state in the Arab world with high levels of unemployment, rapid population growth and dwindling water resources," the report said. And it warned: "Future instability in Yemen could expand a lawless zone stretching from northern Kenya, through Somalia and the Gulf of Aden to Saudi Arabia."

The New York-based campaign Human Rights Watch, in a separate report today, estimated that 70,000 people in northern Yemen have been cut off by the fighting. This "forgotten war" between the government and rebels known as Huthis was being hidden from view by the banning of journalists from the conflict and the cutting-off of mobile phones in the area.

The African Union commission chairman, Jean Ping, suggested that more ships would be hijacked unless the conflict is Somalia is resolved. Piracy off the coast of Somalia was a "a clear indication of the further deterioration of the situation with far reaching consequences" for Somalia, the region, and the international community.