Electrifying Contest Breaks Records

Turnout estimates are notoriously unreliable. But as the dust settled around America's polling booths yesterday, it was broadly agreed that voters had shown up in record numbers to participate in the most electrifying US presidential election for a generation.

Preliminary projections, based on reports from 83% of precincts nationwide, indicated that more than 131 million Americans - 64% of eligible voters - cast a ballot on Tuesday. If accurate, that percentage figure narrowly beats the previous modern high of 63.8% set in the 1960 contest between John Kennedy and Richard Nixon. It is close to the all-time 1908 record of 65.7%, ratcheted up in the contest between William Howard Taft and William Jennings Bryan. In terms of gross numbers, Tuesday's figure of 131 million voters also trounced the previous record, set in the 2004 contest between George Bush and John Kerry, of 123.5 million.

The rise in turnout was attributed to unprecedented efforts by both Democrats and Republicans involving thousands of grassroots volunteers and automated email, text and telephone calling (robo-calling).

The novelty of the first major party black presidential candidate and first female Republican vice-presidential candidate raised voter interest. Advertising expenditure, and the duration of the campaign, broke previous records. Anger over the economy appears to have been the biggest motivator of all. Campaigning via the internet reached unusual numbers of younger voters, who turned out in force.

According to exit polls, roughly one in 10 voters said this was the first time they had taken part in a presidential poll. About seven in 10 of these new voters voted for Obama. Overall, six in 10 new voters were under the age of 30. One in five of these first-time younger voters were black, and one in five Hispanic. Like new voters who identified themselves as independents, these groups went overwhelmingly for Obama. Officials said early voting, now permitted in 34 of the 50 states, had also boosted overall turnout. In all, about 29 million people voted before election day, a little over 20% of the total.

Turnout analysis answered some outstanding questions left over from the campaign. One issue - whether Democratic supporters of Hillary Clinton would switch their votes to Obama - was resoundingly answered in the affirmative. Nearly nine out of 10 of Clinton's primary supporters backed their party's nominee.

The so-called Palin effect, a reference to the surprise choice of Republican vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin, was also illuminated at the polling booths. Four in 10 Republicans said Palin was an important factor underpinning their vote. But similar numbers of independents and moderates said her candidacy had pushed them towards Obama.

One big question remained unanswered: what, if anything, could possibly persuade the 36% of Americans who did not vote to take part in future.