Tzipi Livni Leads Polls in Race for Israeli Leadership

The Israeli foreign minister, Tzipi Livni, was slightly ahead today in the race to be Israel's next prime minister according to opinion polls that forecast a tight race in general elections that could be held within three months.

Livni, as the new head of the ruling Kadima party, announced yesterday that her efforts to put together a coalition government had failed, meaning early elections will be called. She is pushing to have them held as soon as possible - the earliest date would be January 27, a year and 10 months ahead of schedule.

In recent months most polls have suggested Binyamin Netanyahu, head of the opposition rightwing Likud party, as the likely winner. But polls in both the Ma'ariv and Yedioth Ahronoth newspapers today put him slightly behind Livni.

Ma'ariv projected Livni's centrist Kadima party would win 31 seats in the 120-seat Knesset against 29 seats for Likud. Yedioth's poll put Kadima on 29 seats against 26 for Likud.

While both polls forecast a tight contest, they showed a sharp drop in support for Ehud Barak's labor party, which has been Kadima's largest partner in the government for the past two and a half years. labor had 11 seats, according to both polls.

In the current parliament Kadima has 29 seats, labor 19 and Likud 12.

Netanyahu made a quick start to his campaign today with a sharply rightwing speech for the opening session of the Knesset. He said if elected he would ensure Israel kept the Golan Heights, captured from Syria in 1967, as well as large parts of the West Bank and the whole of Jerusalem. Palestinians are trying to claim the West Bank and east Jerusalem, as well as Gaza, as theirs for a future independent state.

His comments set up a contest between himself and the more centrist ex-Likud member Livni over how to conduct peace negotiations. Livni favors continuing talks with Syria and the Palestinians.

Livni has faced some criticism in recent days for failing to achieve a coalition government without elections, but the polls suggest her refusal to give in to the demands of smaller parties that were potential allies may have done her some good.

"She apparently truly believes that there are prices that cannot be paid, that there are red lines that must not be crossed, even for the sake of coming to power," wrote Nadav Eyal in Ma'ariv.

"To some this may sound amateurish, almost surreal. For most of us it is a refreshing change."