US Election: Early Voting Benefits Obama

Nearly a third of American voters are expected to cast their ballots before election day, testimony of the enthusiasm about the contest between Barack Obama and John McCain.

Preliminary evidence from battleground states suggests that the record levels of early voting is strongly benefiting Obama, giving him a cushion against a late surge by McCain.

More than 30 states now allow early voting, in person or by mail, and past experiences of chaos on election day mean more voters are interested in casting their ballot early.

The Obama camp in particular has devoted resources to mobilizing its supporters for early voting.

Paul Gronke of the Early Voting Information Center now predicts about 30% will cast their votes before November 4.

Voting in some battleground states, such as Pennsylvania, has been under way since mid-September. That coincides with McCain's slide in the polls. Florida and Colorado began voting this week.

Together with the Obama camp's emphasis on early voting, that has fueled a sense of optimism among Democrats about their prospects against McCain.

A new poll of five battleground states that voted for George Bush in the 2004 elections showed Obama holding a sizeable advantage among early voters.

Only a fraction of the electorate - 10% in most cases - had voted by the time of the SurveyUSA poll, but Obama's lead in some cases was formidable. That defies past experience of early and absentee voting, which was once the preserve of older voters who were unsure they could get to the polls on election day. Traditionally, that constituency has favored Republicans.

But since the 2004 elections, Democrats have encouraged their supporters to take part in early voting - in part because of suspicion about long lines and breakdown of ballot machines on election day.

The new emphasis on early voting has changed the mechanics of campaigning, with the Obama camp devoting resources to getting their supporters to the polls well ahead of election day.

Democratic organizers have already seen a big increase in early voting in Ohio, one of the states Obama is hoping to capture from the Republicans.

Only 6% of Ohio voters cast early ballots in 2004. By October 13, the number of early voters was 12%, and Obama was leading McCain by 18%.

"You are going to see committed partisans turning out, the most enthusiastic supporters of either candidate and polling has shown that the level of enthusiasm is higher among more people for Obama than for McCain just now," said Dan Seligson at electiononline.org.

In North Carolina, which only weeks ago had been seen as a sure bet for the Republicans, Obama had a 34% lead among the 5% of the electorate who took part in early voting.

That compares to a 5% lead for McCain in the state.

The same scenario was unfolding in another state once seen as an unlikely prospect for the Democrats: Indiana. Among the 14% of voters who have already cast their ballots, Obama was leading by 34%.

In New Mexico, Obama had a 23% lead among the 10% of voters who had mailed in their ballots before October 13. Among the overall population, Obama's lead is only 6%.

Some Democrats now believe the surge in early voting could help the party deepen its hold on Congress - even in states which Obama has no hopes of carrying in the election.

In Georgia, which is seen as a staunchly Republican state, Obama had a 6% advantage among early voters. Some 18% of the electorate had cast their ballots at the time of the survey.