Is History Repeating Itself? The Factors That Could Cost Hamilton the Championship Again

The dark horse problem

Lewis Hamilton appears to have a blind spot in his rear-view mirror. Last year he was locked in a ferocious, season-long contest with his team-mate Fernando Alonso and failed to notice another rival making a late dash for the title. Going into the final race of the season in Brazil, Hamilton was four points ahead of Alonso and seven ahead of Finland's Kimi Raikkonen, whose Ferrari had been quietly assembling a decent run of results, including two first places in the preceding three races.

It was still the Briton's title to lose but from the start in Rio it seemed Hamilton had eyes only for the Spaniard. As early as turn three Alonso got past his McLaren team-mate and Hamilton tried to get straight back at him in turn four only to run wide and drop down four places to eighth. Hamilton finished seventh after some gearbox trouble cost him more time and Raikkonen took the checkered flag and with it the title.

For Alonso now, insert the Finn's team-mate at the Prancing Horse, Felipe Massa, with whom Hamilton has battled relentlessly throughout 2008. And for Raikkonen insert the Polish driver Robert Kubica who has put together a consistent run and is now 12 points behind Hamilton with two races to go. Raikkonen was 17 points behind at the same stage.

Aggression overload

When the going gets tough, the 23-year-old's head seems to fill with macho thoughts and his normally unflappable personality deserts him. Rather than simply keep title rivals in his sights in Rio last year, Hamilton got involved in a scrap for the lead in the very first lap. It was self-defeating, the equivalent of giving the ball away in the last minute of the World Cup final rather than run it into the corners.

In the penultimate race in China all he had needed to do was guide his McLaren back for some points when it became clear that his tires were wearing badly - instead, he ended up in the gravel trap in the pitlane, where his car beached. Yesterday again Hamilton lost his head from the get-go, braking too late for the opening corner, earning himself a penalty, and then getting involved with Massa in lap two which left him at the back of the field.

Pressure points

As any competitor will testify, pressure can weaken the faculties of even the most skilled of practitioners. In China in 2007 Hamilton was beaten off the line by Raikkonen, before getting boxed in by Massa and Raikkonen going into the first corner. His tete-a-tete with Alonso so soon after was almost certainly down to him losing his head.

The Briton is usually an impeccable starter, possessing a cool that belies his years. Yesterday once again with the pressure at maximum. Raikkonen left him standing, prompting Hamilton to push too hard going into the first corner.

Penalties

Put the other factors together and the result is costly penalties. With his mind too concentrated on his opponents, the pressure builds and the red mist comes down. Last year he was fortunate to get away with an incident at the Japanese grand prix in which he was accused of erratic driving behind the safety car that saw Sebastian Vettel and Mark Webber crash out. Yesterday he was not so lucky. If he can't keep his cool in the next two races, Hamilton might look back and see penalties instead of the prize his skill truly deserves.