Maldives President Expected to Face Election Defeat

The first democratic presidential elections in the Indian Ocean islands of the Maldives could see Asia's longest-serving leader ousted by a human rights activist whom he once imprisoned.President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, the 71-year-old Maldivian strongman for the past three decades, faces five rivals in the election that is the culmination of a peaceful democracy movement, which became irresistible after violent riots in 2005.Despite some fears of rigging and threats against political figures earlier this week, the Maldives appeared calm today with a heavy police and military presence. The archipelago of 300,000 people on 1,196 islands is expected to get its new president on Thursday.Gayoom, who has served six terms under a one-candidate system, has pitched himself as the creator of modern-day Maldives. He built an economy on high-end tourism: with resorts on white sand beaches and crystal clear waters - where hotels charge thousands of pounds a night. He claims also to have preserved the island's unique brand of Islam.But the president faces a serious threat from the founder of the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), Mohamed "Anni" Nasheed, a former Amnesty International prisoner of conscience.Nasheed, a slight man who walks with a limp from the torture he endured, has been the president's most effective tormentor – attacking the widening gulf between rich and poor and an alarming rise in drug use. The perception, especially in the crowded capital Male, is that a corrupt elite has profited from the Gayoom presidency."We have seen a real groundswell of public support in the last few weeks. The levels of poverty have become a real issue. There is vast wealth only in the top seven percent of the population. Seventy per cent of the population lives below the poverty line and there is a social breakdown as the gap between rich and poor widens," said the MDP's Nasheen Mohammed.There have been signs of a bubbling conflict in the islands. The Maldives suffered its first ever terror attack last year, with Islamic militants blamed for bombing a park in Male, and wounding a dozen tourists.The MDP consider Male their base – Anni Nasheed was elected to the Maldivian parliament in 2000. However, Gayoom's political constituency is among the 1,000 smaller islands located 800 km (500 miles) off the tip of India. In these rural constituencies Gayoom's message as protector of Islam plays well.The winner will have to garner more than 50 per cent of the votes to avoid a run-off. A runoff date will be announced if no candidate gets half the vote.With no reliable opinion polls, the outcome is seen as impossible to predict. One local newspaper's internet poll put the MDP at 53 per cent to Gayoom's 10. However, this is considered a reflection of web users' preferences.Gayoom promised to hand over power peacefully if he loses. Last month, the president signed into law a new constitution establishing an independent judiciary and electoral body. It also ended the practice of the parliament approving a single candidate who was put forward in a referendum. On this basis Gayoom was returned to power six times with what he said was more than 90 per cent of the vote.The new president will lose considerable power - with the new 74-member parliament having the right to block cabinet appointments and produce new laws. According to the new constitution, polls to the new parliament have to take place before next March."These elections are important but we need elections for the new parliament quickly. It is the body that will be supreme," said the MDP's Nasheen Mohammed.