Debate an Opportunity for Candidates to Sway the Minds of Voters

The White House election could be decided in just 90 minutes. The presidential debate, still scheduled for tomorrow night in Oxford, Mississippi, provides the first opportunity for voters to see John McCain and Barack Obama together and finally make up their minds.

Almost 20% of the electorate are still undecided, according to the polls, and both Democratic and Republican pollsters agree that the debate, set to attract a record television audience, could settle lingering doubts about the two candidates.

The pollsters, in a rare show of consensus, agree that the main question Obama has to deal with is over whether, given his lack of experience, he is credible as commander in chief. The main question about McCain is whether he represents a continuation of President George Bush's administration, fatal for his hopes of taking the White House.

What gives the debate an extra edge is that neither Obama nor McCain, though good communicators, are good debaters. The debate has been further complicated by the political manoeuvring of McCain over the last 48 hours that has given the Republican candidate an extra edge.

Professor Alan Schroeder, author of Presidential Debates: Fifty Years of High-Risk TV, looking back at previous debates, said: "We never know what is going to happen in live TV events. The outcome is often different from what we anticipated."

Schroeder, who is based at Boston's North-Eastern University, added that the debate offered a rare opportunity to see the candidates when they are not sticking carefully to prepared speeches. "We get a little more sense of the individual and how he behaves under pressure," he said.

Is Obama credible as commander in chief? The topic for the first debate was switched, as a result of lobbying from Obama, from domestic policy to foreign affairs, mainly because Obama's campaign team is well aware that the biggest question is the commander in chief one and that most floating voters make up their mind in the first of the three debates.

Obama had been preparing hard for this, having planned to spend almost four days holed up in his 'debate camp' in Tampa. The Democratic candidate was refining his arguments on Iraq, Iran and a host of other foreign policy issues.

But the debate, in spite of the topic, is also going to be about the economy and McCain will go to the heart of electors doubts about Obama by claiming that this week he, rather than the Democratic candidate, demonstrated leadership on the issue.

Daniel Schnur, who was McCain's communications director during the 2000 campaign for the Republican presidential nomination against George Bush, sees the debate as more important for Obama than McCain. "To a large degree, this first debate is about Obama. Voters are intrigued. They are not sure he can handle the challenges. In 90 minutes, he will have the chance to reassure voters that he is comfortable and capable with these issues. I think the first debate will be decisive. It will set the tone from which most voters will make their assessment."

Schnur said that McCain can not allow Obama to glide through the debate. He compared the debate to the 1980 one when Ronald Reagan, like Obama, had to persuade voters he was up to the job. "Reagan did not dazzle or dominate but he reassured voters he could handle high office. It is not a high bar for Obama unless McCain can throw him off his game," Schnur said. And McCain seems to be doing that.

Can McCain convince voters he will not be a continuation of Bush? Schroeder said Bush would be "lurking as a backdrop to this debate". While McCain would distance himself as much as possible from the president, he expected Obama to raise him as often as he could.

McCain is one of the few Republicans who can argue with some conviction, given his history as a party dissident, that he offers different policies from those pursued by Bush over the last eight years.

Although it is a hard sell, given public antipathy towards Bush and the Republican party, McCain is presenting himself as a vehicle for change and reform. Republican-leaning analysts argue that making Sarah Palin his vice presidential candidate helped in terms of making him look plausible as an agent for change.

On the downside for McCain is the image the two men will present on stage. He is 72 and looks it, in stark contrast with Obama, aged 47. Schroeder said: "McCain looks like man whose time has come and gone. Obama has the advantage of youth. It may not be articulated in the debate but will be lurking there."

Stan Greenberg, a Democratic pollster, and Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster, gave a rare joint briefing with journalists in Washington last week. Both were in agreement about the importance of the two themes, Obama as commander in chief and fears of McCain as a continuation of Bush. And both agreed that whoever won the argument would be the next president.