Keeping Its Man Out of Prison Will Mean Party Using Political Clout

No one at the top of the ruling African National Congress admits it directly but the caretaker government that will take over after President Thabo Mbeki formally resigns will have one primary task - to keep the man the party wants to make the next elected president, Jacob Zuma, out of jail.

But to do that the new administration will have to do what the party accused Mbeki of when it toppled him this weekend - exerting political influence over the justice system.

The ANC secretary general, Gwede Mantashe, hinted as much in announcing that an important factor in the party's decision to "recall" Mbeki was the national prosecutor's plan to appeal against a high court judgment that threw out corruption charges against Zuma. The judge, Chris Nicholson, accused Mbeki, members of his cabinet and the chief prosecutor of using apartheid-style tactics to prosecute Zuma as part of the "titanic political struggle" for control of the ANC.

With that ruling, Zuma's supporters thought their man was off the hook and that, as the ANC leader, he had a clear run to be elected the country's next president in May. But then prosecutors announced their decision to appeal, a move the ANC leadership saw as an attempt by Mbeki to keep alive the judicial pursuit of Zuma.

"The biggest worry of the ANC had been the question of a reversal of the closure of the chapter that the Nicholson judgment seemed to have promised," said Mantashe. "If pursued it will continue to be a point of division for the ANC. We share (people's) desire for stability and we believe our decision is in the interests of making that security".

The official opposition, the Democratic Alliance, said that, far from creating stability, forcing a sitting president from office in order to manipulate justice could only create insecurity.

The DA leader, Helen Zille, noted that while the high court stopped the prosecution because of alleged interference by Mbeki it did not clear Zuma of charges of taking bribes from a French arms company bidding for contracts in South Africa's biggest weapons deal. "The move is clearly an attempt to find the political solution to Jacob Zuma's legal problems that his supporters have been calling for," she said. "Replacing President Mbeki with a Zuma proxy will open the way for them to ensure that he does not have to face court to answer the 783 allegations of corruption against him. If Zuma is put above the law it will do more to undermine the constitution than anything else.

"It is untenable for Jacob Zuma to assume the presidency without being acquitted of these charges by a court of law. Judge Nicholson's judgment was not an acquittal."

But even if the prosecution goes ahead, it is unlikely to come to court before the general election and few in the ANC or outside of it imagine that a sitting president would allow himself to be put on trial.

One option for Zuma is for the interim president who will take over from Mbeki for the remainder of his term, or Zuma himself after next year's election, to declare an amnesty for crimes associated with the arms deals. Zuma is not the only one tainted by the scandal. The ANC itself banked millions of pounds.

Zuma had threatened that if he was forced into court he would begin to name names. An amnesty would get those others off the hook as well, including Zuma's former financial adviser, Schabir Shaik, whose conviction in 2005 for bribing Zuma on behalf of a French arms company earned him 15 years in prison and launched the titanic battle with Mbeki that has brought down the second president of the post-apartheid era.