Polls Suggest Tzipi Livni Could Become First Female Israeli Pm for Over 30 Years

Members of Israel's ruling Kadima party are today voting for a new leader, with opinion polls suggesting that the foreign minister, Tzipi Livni, could become the country's first female prime minister in more than 30 years.

Opinion polls put Livni, a former Mossad agent and lawyer with only a decade's experience in politics, some way ahead of her closest challenger, the transport minister and hawkish former army chief Shaul Mofaz.

If she wins and forms a government, she would be the first female prime minister since Golda Meir resigned in 1974.

However, analysts warned that the vote would be difficult to call. Polls are open until late tonight, and a result is not expected before early tomorrow.

If one candidate wins more than 40% of the vote, they will then be given 42 days to form a coalition government. If no coalition is agreed then new elections must be held within three months.

Until then, the prime minister, Ehud Olmert - who is facing several corruption investigations and has promised to resign after the vote - would probably stay on as a caretaker.

Around 74,000 members of Kadima are eligible to vote, and a low turnout might favor Mofaz, whose campaign is thought to have been better organised.

Israel's Ynet news website said only 28% of voters had turned out by 6pm local time, but more were expected for the last four hours of voting.

Livni voted in Tel Aviv and encouraged others to turn out, saying: "You can determine today what the character of Kadima will be."

"You can determine today if you really have had enough of old-time politics. Come and vote, bring your children, and show them how you are changing the country."

Mofaz, as he has often done in recent weeks, emphasized his security background as a former general and defence minister.

"The state of Israel stands before major challenges in the coming years and needs a strong leader who has the courage to decide and the ability to act," he told Israeli Army Radio.

On Sunday, he predicted he would win the vote, even promising to take the election with exactly 43%.

One of the most recent polls, carried out for the Ma'ariv newspaper on Monday, suggested the gap between the two leading contenders was shrinking but still put Livni well ahead on 42.5% against Mofaz on 30.4%.

The two other candidates, the internal security minister, Avi Dichter, and Meir Sheetrit, the tourism minister, are a long way behind.If none of the candidates reaches 40%, a run-off vote will be held next week.

Although Livni, 50, and 59-year-old Mofaz are from the same party, there are marked differences in their views.

Livni has been closely involved in the last year of negotiations with the Palestinians, and is expected to continue the process if she wins. She argues in favour of a Palestinian state, but is adamantly opposed to the return of a single Palestinian refugee into what is now Israel.

Mofaz has been much more skeptical about the idea of talks with the Palestinians - last week he told an Israeli newspaper the negotiations had been a "waste of time" - but supports the idea of a two-state solution to the conflict.

He has also taken a much tougher line on Iran and its nuclear ambitions, saying earlier this year that he thought war was "unavoidable".

Some Israeli commentators have been distinctly unimpressed. Sima Kadmon, writing in today's Yedioth Ahronoth, said she thought both lacked charisma and leadership ability.

"It is not an easy choice. Choosing between Tzipi Livni and Shaul Mofaz is like choosing between two shades of grey," she wrote.