Israel's Kadima Begins Voting to Elect New Head

Voting began today to find a new leader for Israel's ruling Kadima party, with the current foreign minister, Tzipi Livni, still ahead in opinion polls.

Around 74,000 members of Kadima will take part in the vote with a result not expected until early tomorrow. If the winner succeeds in forming a coalition with other smaller parties within the next five weeks, he or she will become prime minister. Four candidates are running and Livni's strongest challenger is Shaul Mofaz, a hawkish former army chief, who has emphasized his security background.

Opinion polls have consistently put Livni, a former lawyer who entered politics only a decade ago, a long way in front, although analysts caution that Israeli primary elections are difficult to call particularly since this is the first primary for Kadima, a party formed only three years ago by the then prime minister, Ariel Sharon. If Livni wins and forms a coalition she would be the first female prime minister in Israel for more than 30 years.

The latest poll, carried out on Monday for the Ma'ariv newspaper, suggested the gap between the two leading contenders was shrinking but still put Livni well ahead on 42.5%, against Mofaz on 30.4%. The two other candidates, Avi Dichter, the internal security minister, and Meir Sheetrit, the tourism minister, are a long way behind.

"Today we can start to make the change that Israel needs in order to once again be what it should be, what it can be," Livni told Israeli Army Radio this morning. "I know what this country needs ... to continue the process that will allow us to determine the borders of the state of Israel with security."

Mofaz told the radio station: "The state of Israel stands before major challenges in the coming years and needs a strong leader who has the courage to decide and the ability to act."

Although both are from the same party, there are wide differences in their positions. Livni, 50, has been closely involved in the past year of negotiations with the Palestinians and is expected to continue the process if she wins. She argues in favor of a Palestinian state although she is adamantly opposed to the return of a single Palestinian refugee into what is now Israel.

Mofaz, 59, has been much more skeptical about the idea of talks with the Palestinians and is thought unlikely to continue the talks. He has also taken a much tougher line on Iran and its nuclear ambitions, saying earlier this year that he thought war with Iran was "unavoidable".

Some Israeli commentators have been unimpressed though. Sima Kadmon, writing in today's Yedioth Ahronoth, said he thought both lacked charisma and leadership ability. "It is not an easy choice. Choosing between Tzipi Livni and Shaul Mofaz is like choosing between two shades of grey," Kadmon wrote.

Today's election has been prompted by a series of embarrassing and high-profile corruption investigations into the prime minister, Ehud Olmert, who is only halfway through his four-year term. Police have recommended he be charged over a number of investigations although he may not be indicted for several months. Olmert has promised to resign after today's vote, but he is likely to stay on as a caretaker prime minister while a coalition is formed.

If today's winner gets more than 40% of the vote, they will then be asked to form a coalition within the next 42 days. But if he or she fails to draw in the small and fractious parties necessary to form a government, then elections must be held within three months. Polls suggest that Benjamin Netanyahu, leader of the rightwing Likud party, is best placed to win a general election now.