US Election: Early Voting Could Alter Campaign Strategies

After almost two years of campaigning, the US election is arriving with a rush. Although there are 52 days left until the November 4 election, the first of the ballot boxes will be open next Friday in Virginia for early voting.

Other states will follow soon after. Thirty-six of the 50 states are offering the opportunity to vote early, either in person or by post.

The expansion of early voting is posing a dilemma for the campaign teams, with decisions having to be made about whether to time adverts and rallies to coincide with the opening of early ballots or whether to delay drives until closer to November 4.

With 30% or more of the electorate predicted to vote early, the Barack Obama and John McCain campaigns are already in overdrive to try to mobilize supporters.

Early voting will have a "tremendous" impact on the campaign, said Paul Gronke, professor of Reed university and director of the university's Early Voting Information Center.

He said that, instead of one big bang on November 4, the weeks to come would be like Groundhog Day for the campaign teams, replaying election day over and over again.

"People tend to vote on Fridays and Mondays, so you have to time events for that. You have to get the ads out at the right time. For campaigns, it is raising the costs," he said.

The concertina effect on the campaign is already forcing radical changes in campaign strategy, with signs that Obama is having to abandon his ambitious plan for fight all 50 states and instead concentrate ads and energy in the battlefield states.

The early opening of the ballots in Virginia, a battlefield state that Obama hopes to take from the Republicans, partly explains why the Republican candidate John McCain and his running-mate Sarah Palin held a rally in the state on Wednesday and why a Victory 2008 bus tour, packed with congressmen and McCain's brother Joe, set off today on a voter registration drive.

Early balloting after Virginia opens in Idaho on September 22, Missouri on September 23 and Iowa, another state that Obama hopes to take from the Republicans, on September 25.

In battlefield states that have so often decided the outcome of recent elections, early balloting opens in Ohio on September 30 and Florida on October 20.

Those who vote early tend to be partisan, with their minds made up and unlikely to be swayed by the upcoming presidential debates, analysts say.

The Obama campaign is encouraging as many of its supporters as possible to vote early, fearful that would-be Democratic voters might turn away on election day if facing long queues on November 4 because of Republican challenges to voter eligibility.

Professor Michael McDonald, a specialist on elections at Virginia's George Mason university, said: "We know there is going to be a high turn-out and this offers a pressure relief valve." He anticipated the highest turn-out in 100 years.

"We are off the charts in terms of interest in candidates," McDonald said.

The number of states offering early voting has jumped from only 11 in the 1990s.

In the 2000 election only 15% of the electorate voted early, jumping to 20% in the 2004 election and 25% in the congressional race in 2006. Gronke predicted 33% in this election.