Morales Heads for Win in Tense Bolivian Poll

Bolivia's president, Evo Morales, appeared poised for victory in a recall referendum last night but the political crisis that has stalled his socialist reforms showed no sign of ending.

South America's poorest country was tense as voters determined whether Morales, his vice-president and eight provincial governors should be ejected in a high-stakes test of strength.

The president hoped a referendum victory would salvage his effort to "refound" Bolivia as a centralized state with left-wing policies to favor the long-marginalized indigenous majority.

Analysts predicted he would keep his job and regain political momentum but still struggle to break the deadlock paralyzing his ambitious agenda.

Referendum rules stipulated that the president would only be ejected if his opponents garnered more than 53.7% of the vote - the total Morales won in the 2005 presidential elections.

A fresh landslide for the country's first indigenous leader could embolden him to push for a new constitution, but the most powerful opposition governors also seemed likely to keep their jobs, setting the scene for a continued standoff.

From early morning, indigenous voters in the impoverished western highlands, including the capital La Paz and its satellite city El Alto, thronged polling stations to back Morales, a former coca farmer. "He is the one, the first one who actually cares about us, the poor, the peasants, the originarios [indigenes]," said Flora Flores, an indigenous woman wearing a traditional bowler hat, thick skirt and colorful poncho. "I will defend Evo Morales even with my own life if I have to."

Nearby, a small herd of black llamas passed a wall with graffiti: "Bolivia changes, Evo delivers" and "My president stays, the revolution advances."

Observers from the Organization of American States and the EU monitored polling amid reports of minor irregularities. Morales, draped with garlands of flowers, coca leaves and popcorn, voted in the coca-growing region of Chapare. "From tomorrow, there will be a great meeting of our peoples ... to continue to deepen the process of change," he said.

It was a different story in the relatively prosperous eastern lowlands, where Morales is seen as an autocrat with a racial and economic grudge against lighter-skinned Bolivians of mixed race.

Opposition leaders accused him of being a puppet of his ally and mentor, Venezuela's president, Hugo Chávez. "The government wants to impose a constitution that centralizes, destroys institutions and the economy," said Jorge Quiroga, the former president. "The president needs to divorce Chávez and marry Bolivia."

Violent protests and airport blockades prevented Morales from campaigning in the east last week, underlining a dangerous division that has prompted talk of Bolivia becoming a failed state despite a commodities-driven economic boom.

The nation was split by two competing visions: liberal, free-wheeling capitalism versus centralized, pro-indigenous, income-redistributing socialism, said political analyst Carlos Alarcón. "This country is very polarized. If it wants to advance, it needs these two visions to agree."