Unpredictable Plays

An apparently irrelevant play can sometimes radically affect a pot - or a tournament. I watched a hand in which Surinder Sunar, an old Late Night Poker favorite, limped in early position with A9 offsuit. This triggered a respectful flat call from former world champion Chris "Jesus" Ferguson, on the button with Ks Js. Van der Peet completed the small blind with Jc 7c, and Swedish whiz-kid Mats Rahm checked 7d 9d on the big blind.

The flop came Jd 3h 5d. They all checked to Jesus, who bet $500. Van der Peet raised to $1,000 (with the same pair, worse kicker); Rahm called with the flush draw, Jesus called, Sunar passed.

The turn came 3s. Van der Peet checked and Rahm bet $2,500. Jesus folded the best hand immediately. This left Van der Peet with the best hand, and he folded too! After Rahm's check-call of a check-raise, they believed him for a monster. Now, what happens if Sunar passes pre-flop? Jesus would raise from the button and Van der Peet would pass. Rahm would call or re-raise this possible button steal - but (without Van der Peet behind him) Jesus would be more aggressive, and a lot of money could pour in on that flop. Depending on the river, one of those two players could well have been knocked out. Statistically, it should have been Rahm.

All Sunar did was throw in the sum of the big blind, then pass. But the domino effect led to Rahm winning a big pot with the worst hand of four, when he might otherwise have been eliminated. As WB Yeats said about early position limping: "Tread softly, for you tread on their dreams ..."