Brown Indicates End is in Sight for Britain's Occupation Role in Iraq

Gordon Brown signaled the effective end of Britain's role in the five-year occupation of Iraq yesterday, when he predicted that the British mission in the country will be "fundamentally changed in the first months of next year".

He left unclear how many British troops will remain beyond then, or whether Britain is seeking a permanent base, telling MPs any troops that remain will operate with the bilateral agreement of the Iraqi government, "similar to the normal relationships our military forces have with other important countries in the region".

The prime minister has been damaged before by his over-optimism about British troop draw downs, and he was careful to say that any troop reductions would be dependent on events on the ground.

Much will depend on talks between the US and Iraqis on an agreement to replace the UN mandate covering the British and US troop presence in Iraq that expires at the end of the year.

Listing the remaining key tasks for the 4,100 British troops stationed in Iraq, Brown said he expected local government elections to take place by the end of 2008, Basra airport to be transferred to Iraqi control by the end of the year, and training and mentoring of combat troops of the 14th division in Basra, including its headquarters by the beginning of next year.

He expected the Basra development commission to publish its detailed economic development plan in the autumn.

Government officials stressed that the timetable for troop withdrawals - to be fleshed out with specific troop numbers in the autumn - has been agreed with the White House, and the US military commander in Iraq, David Patreus.

Brown told MPs: "In recent months, conditions in Basra have shown a marked improvement.

"Incidents of indirect fire against British troops in the Basra air station have fallen from 200 a month at their peak last summer to an average of fewer than five a month since April this year.

"The all-party House of Commons defence committee, which has visited Iraq recently, says the security situation in Basra has been transformed."

The prime minister said that violent incidents were at their lowest since 2004 and improvements in security were increasingly Iraqi-led.

On the basis that critical tasks were achieved, he said: "We would expect another fundamental change of mission in the first few months of 2009 as we make the transition to a long-term bilateral relationship with Iraq."

Brown rejected David Cameron's calls for a public inquiry into the genesis of the war, saying the focus had to remain with the 4,000 troops in the country.

Nick Clegg, the Liberal Democrat leader, said he regretted that there was still a lack of clarity about when precisely British troops will finally leave.