Iraq Withdrawal Likely By 2010, Pm Hints

Gordon Brown will today hold back from giving an "artificial timetable" for British troop withdrawal from Iraq in a Commons statement, but intends to leave the impression that progress is such that a withdrawal is possible within two years.

His Commons statement will come as a glowing report from the defence select committee, published today, claims "a high degree of security has been restored in Basra", the center of UK operations for the 4,000 British troops still in Iraq.

"The preconditions are in place for political progress and economic recovery," the committee says, in a report that is far more optimistic than some of its recent assessments.

Brown, who visited Iraq at the weekend, will assert that Britain is making progress in training Iraqi security forces, and establishing the ability of those forces to employ sophisticated counter-insurgency tactics.

The select committee was told by British and Iraqi security forces that operations against Basra militias largely loyal to Moqtada al-Sadr in March had "resulted in a seismic shift in the balance of power" and that "a large part of its importance lay in the fact that it had been conducted with Iraqi forces in the lead".

The select committee also says that although parts of Basra are not yet under government control, it will be hard for Sadr to regain political dominance since his movement cannot participate in the provincial elections while he runs an avowed militia movement.

The committee also warns that the influence of Iran remains a major factor, adding that the border "remains porous, allowing military and weaponry to flow easily from one country to another".