The Open: the Players to Watch at Blustery Birkdale

The one thing you cannot help but notice on arrival at Royal Birkdale is the strength of the wind coming off the Irish Sea (30mph to be exact, though that is forecast to drop by half on Saturday and Sunday). It's mighty difficult just doing my job of sitting here typing this in the press tent, where the steel is creaking and the canvas overhead is rattling around so loudly it's drowning out the utterances of players in the interview room. So spare a thought for the golfers who were already going to be stretched to the full by the demands of this extremely tight course.

It has been extended by only 155 yards since Birkdale last staged the Open in 1998, but numerous bunkers have been added and the rough will be more punitive than first supposed. Here there will be no distant shots of wispy brown rough resembling vast cornfields, the unmown sections of the course having grown greener and lusher with every shower that this miserable summer has brought. "Long, juicy and tough" is how Masters champion Trevor Immelman described it, also calling the course "the toughest I've played on the Open rota".

All this means straight driving off the tee will be essential, which does not bode well for the world No2, Phil Mickelson. While the wind is not such that we are in danger of losing a whole day's play (an even bigger commercial disaster than Tiger's absence), as was the case when gales brought marquees crashing down on the course in Arnold Palmer's victory year of 1961, the evidence of this morning suggests Lefty's high-flighted shots will most certainly not be suited to the task ahead.

Control of the ball, a strategy to plot a route around the course with every hole facing in a different direction, and a solid putter will all be essential, which is why I've picked the following five players as my ones to watch ...

5) Steve Stricker - 80-1The Americans are playing down their chances here without you-know-who, but having supplied 10 of the last 13 winners there is certain to be at least one of them in contention come Sunday. Picking that one is far from easy, but Stricker's steady game could well match the requirements of this week. Jim Furyk's unique swing is also unlikely to be too badly affected by the wind, not to the extent we might be able to tell anyway - he finished a career-best fourth here a decade ago.

4) Ernie Els - 16-1The Big Easy is the only one of the world's top six players in the field to have anything that even approaches a solid record at the Open. He won the championship in 2002, was runner-up on three occasions and finished third and fourth in the last two years. Compare that to Mickelson, Geoff Ogilvy, Adam Scott and Stewart Cink, who have only one top-10 finish each in a combined 38 Opens. It would be a big surprise if Ernie doesn't challenge.

3) Trevor Immelman - 66-1In 1998 Mark O'Meara followed up his first major victory at Augusta by winning the Open later that summer. At Birkdale. Could history be about to repeat itself? Immelman's form took something of a dip after his Masters success, with the 28-year-old South African admitting he took time to understand and deal with what he achieved; but this morning he claimed golf is again his No1 priority, and he has proved before he can handle the world's toughest courses.

2) Lee Westwood - 20-1After his third place at the US Open, he said he now knows that he can win a major (which to me strikes a little of Gérard Houllier remarking when he managed Liverpool: "We've finished fourth, third and second, so we know we are winners"). He has been equally buoyant about his chances in the early part of this week, and those in the know believe he will cope with the wind as well as anyone.

1. Sergio García - 12-1It has become fashionable to back the favorite at major tournaments this century, and although the favorite this time is at 12-1 rather than 2-1, there seems no obvious reason to alter this approach. He has the perfect game for links golf, perfect now that he seems to have overcome his putting yips – his final-round 66 at the European Open 10 days ago contained only 21 putts - "definitely the best putting round I've ever had". The average age of Europe's "Big Five" (Nick Faldo, Ian Woosnam, Seve Ballesteros, Bernhard Langer and Sandy Lyle) was 28 for their first major win – the age of García. And if any player is likely to feel more comfortable without Tiger's presence it's Sergio – just think back to the final round at Hoylake in 2006 when, in his bright yellow "banana" outfit, he capitulated alongside Woods. That won't happen this time.

I've also taken a trip around the press tent to provide some proper "expert" advice from the world's golf correspondents, so here it is...

Lawrence Donegan, The GuardianWinner: Robert Karlsson – he's in great form. I always trust the caddies, and all the caddies are telling me at the moment that he's the one. Outsider: Hunter Mahan – this is the only major where he's never missed the cut. He always comes into his stride at this time of year and he obviously loves the tournament.

Bill Elliott, The ObserverWinner: Lee Westwood – he is the most improved player in the world over the last two years and he now has the short game to match the rest of his game. Outsider: Hunter Mahan – he has played three Opens as a professional and he has finished 36th, 26th and sixth. That to me suggests an upward curve.

Wolfgang Scheffler, Frankfurter Allgemeine ZeitungWinner: Sergio García – it is wide open but he is the obvious choice. He has been in the top 10 in the Open on six of the last seven occasions, and he finally has his putting under control.Outsider: Oliver Fisher – he's an excellent player and one to look out for on the basis of his recent results.

Kenji Oishi, Nikkan Sport NewsWinner: Sergio García – this is the year of the Spanish after all, with Rafael Nadal and the Spain football team.Outsider: Ryuji Imada – he is our Japanese hero. He won the AT&T Classic in the US in May and he has been second another two times.

Barry Habenger, Golf Digest South AfricaWinner: Ernie Els – he has a great record at the Open and this year should almost be guaranteed a top-five finish. He has to be at least an each-way bet.Outsider: Stewart Cink – not exactly an outsider, but I think he could do well without Tiger, and the cold and windy conditions are likely to suit his game.

Damon Hack, Sports IllustratedWinner: Sergio García – it is his time. He got a taste for it last year when he came so close. There is no better driver around and his putting has improved greatly, and the Players Championship win will give him further belief. It is also important for him being a Ryder Cup year.Outsider: Andrés Romero – he won in New Orleans and he has finished eighth and third in his two Opens.