Tsvangirai's Indecision Exposes His Weakness

All he could do yesterday was watch helplessly from his refuge in the Dutch embassy as Robert Mugabe extended his 28-year rule with what amounted to a coronation at state house.

Tsvangirai turned down an invitation to the inauguration, a particularly pointed taunt by Zimbabwe's rulers because they know the MDC leader is otherwise desperate to talk to Mugabe.

After weeks of refusing negotiations, Zimbabwe's newly inaugurated president now says he is ready to talk to Tsvangirai. But the two men have very different outcomes in mind and very different intents.

The MDC leader sees talks as a step toward dismantling Zanu-PF rule through power sharing and assurances to members of the violent mafia that now runs the country that they will not be held to account for their crimes.

Mugabe is seeking to co-opt and neuter his opponents as a means to defuse international criticism and get the aid he wants to rescue Zimbabwe's imploding economy.

The weakness of Tsvangirai's position is reflected in his inconsistency on the question of talks. Last week he told the Times that Mugabe had 48 hours to negotiate or there would be no talks, a position that caught even his advisers off guard. "I was puzzled ... he was going to have to talk to Mugabe after the election," said Brian Raftopoulos, a political scientist and adviser to the MDC.

At the weekend Tsvangirai shifted position again and said he would push for negotiations with Mugabe on a new constitution and fresh elections.

Tsvangirai told the Sunday Telegraph that he would consider an arrangement where Mugabe remains as a titular head of state.

All of this is revealing of how desperate the MDC leader is for a negotiated solution because of his limited options.

"Mugabe's on top now and he is going to try to take control of any talks," said Raftopoulos. "The MDC are not in a strong position. If there are going to be talks, there are going to be very serious compromises by the MDC. Alternatively they've got a lot of international support and growing support in the region so they could hold out and fight for an increasing isolation."

Raftopoulos said Mugabe's attitude toward talks was likely to be influenced by what happens at today's African Union summit in Egypt.

The MDC can expect a rash of promises from Zimbabwe's president that he wants compromise. But in the background will remain the forces that bludgeoned Mugabe back to power.