Neutrality, Abortion and Dustin the Turkey Threaten to Cause Irish Referendum Upset

It is an unlikely alliance: ultra-rightwing Catholics, traditional nationalists, pro-American free marketeers and the far left. Add in a pop star and a turkey puppet called Dustin and you have a force which threatens to sink a reform project designed to transform how nearly 500 million Europeans are governed.

The Irish Republic goes to the polls today to ratify or reject the Lisbon EU reform treaty, which was meant to map out Europe's future in the 21st century. The potential for an upset is very real.

Forget that Ireland used to be one of the most pro-European nations in the EU, thanks to lavish grant aid worth a net €40bn (£16bn) since it joined the then EEC in 1973. Domestic fears over rising unemployment, concern about the loss of Irish influence within the EU, and claims that European law will let in abortion by the back door have put the treaty in danger.

In moves to stir up anti-European feeling the no camp has deployed an eclectic range of celebrities, while the face of Peter Mandelson, the EU's trade commissioner, has been used on giant billboards to scare Irish farmers fearful about the impact a global trade deal on agriculture. The exhortation to "Say no to Mandelson's Europe" kept the normally pro-European Irish Farmers Association procrastinating until the last minute when it finally called on its 85,000 members to vote yes.

Arguably the most tenacious of the no forces has been Libertas, the free-market group founded by businessman Declan Ganley. Ganley bought plane tickets to Brussels on Friday for the prime minister, Brian Cowen, and two pro-treaty opposition leaders, an invitation for them to return to Brussels to get a better deal.

Pop star Jim Corr warned that Ireland was sleepwalking into a European superstate with its own army, endangering Irish neutrality, a theme the hard left focused on during the campaign. And fans of the comic puppet Dustin were so outraged over the turkey's failure to get into the final of the Eurovision Song Contest that they organized Bebo and Facebook campaigns against Lisbon, insisting: "Europe didn't vote for Dustin so vote no to Lisbon."

Elsewhere, there is a large constituency fearful about the loss of national identity. Niamh Jamieson of Dublin is typical of voters worried about Irish influence being diluted within the EU. "Some of the oldest and most politically involved women have expressed regret that having seen their generation's struggle, at some cost, to be independent of Britain and manage their own affairs democratically, they stand on the brink of giving all that away to an unelected EU bureaucracy," she said. "There is a basic mistrust of the whole project. That is why I'm voting no."

Yesterday Cowen attacked the "scare tactics", denying the treaty would mean the creation of a pan-European army or subvert Irish control over policy on taxation and abortion.

Despite the strength of the no campaign, privately the government is hopeful of victory on the basis of internal polling that shows 55:45 in favour. But the prospect of a no vote remains an acute anxiety - and not just for Cowen.

A no vote would scupper a treaty that provides for a new dispensation for the EU, streamlining the European commission, redefining how the EU is run, changing the voting system to better reflect the clout of individual countries, giving the EU its first sitting president, its own diplomatic service and a European foreign minister, and doing away with national vetoes in justice and home affairs.

Some in Brussels and London would quietly celebrate a no vote , since they are quite satisfied with the status quo and fear losing out under the new deal.

Those with most to gain are Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin and President Nicolas Sarkozy in Paris. Lisbon is Merkel's treaty. She worked tirelessly during Germany's EU presidency last year to draft and get agreement on the new treaty, and the Germans are extremely anxious about the impact of a no vote. Such an outcome could also wreck Sarkozy's ambitious plans for the EU French presidency which starts on July 1, and leave him serving out six months of crisis-management.

The referendum has already helped to bring down one prime minister - Ireland's own Bertie Ahern, who quit last month to stop the vote becoming a probably negative verdict on his personal finances.

Both camps accept that the outcome upon which the whole European project rests will be extremely close. In the final hours leading up to the referendum each side appealed to Irish patriotism. Opposition parties Fine Gael and labor stressed that they were joining the government in calling for a yes in the national interest.

On the no side, Sinn Féin evoked the sacrifices of the 1916 Easter Rising with a final press conference on the steps of Dublin's GPO, the spot where Patrick Pearse and his fellow republicans launched their armed uprising against British rule.

But the future may eventually hinge not on issues connected to the EU but on the Irish economy. On the eve of the poll, figures were released showing dole queues swelling by nearly 1,000 people a week. Unemployment has surged to more than 200,000. Government sources expressed hope yesterday that voters would not use the referendum as a means of beating up the Cowen administration and in the process plunge the EU's reforms into chaos.

Plebiscites: A simple yes-no

Referendums are a blunt instrument for the complex governance of the European Union, which embraces almost half a billion people in 27 countries. They are less than loved in Brussels and avoided where possible. But national plebiscites are loved by eurosceptics parading as fighters for democracy and exploiting the populist potential of a simple yes-no vote to damn Brussels.

Masterminding the new treaty last year, the German government structured the whole deal to avoid any popular votes. Ireland is the sole exception, being required to stage popular votes on EU treaties.

The history of the referendum in the EU is very mixed. Countries generally have referendums on joining and vote yes. Only Norway has rejected membership by plebiscite (twice). Along with the Irish, the Danes have been an awkward squad, voting down the Maastricht treaty in 1992 and rejecting the single currency in 2000.

The big shifts in the running of the EU were brought in with the 1987 single European act creating a single market, the Maastricht treaty creating the modern union and paving the way for the euro, and the Amsterdam treaty of 1999 consolidating the border-free continental Europe. Nice in 2001 changed the arrangements to accommodate the joining of eastern Europe.

Ireland and Denmark held votes, both positive, on the single European act. The Danes triggered a rumpus by rejecting Maastricht in a referendum, before endorsing it when they were allowed to opt out of four policy areas. French Maastricht supporters scraped through on 51%. The Irish sparked another crisis by voting against Nice in 2001, endorsing it a year later when they obtained pledges on Irish neutrality.

In 2005, the Lisbon treaty's precursor, the draft constitution, was killed off by Dutch and French referendums. Both EU founder members shocked Brussels by saying no, the French by almost 55%, the Dutch by 61%.

Europe's future, being decided today, may hinge on such happenstance as the Irish weather. An unlovely day could keep people at home. A low turnout will hurt the pro-European vote.