Q&A: Ireland's Referendum on the Eu Reform Treaty

Is Ireland set to reject the Lisbon treaty?

Opinion polls at the weekend sent out mixed messages. One gave the No campaign a 5% lead while another put the Yes camp narrowly ahead. What all sides in the debate agree on is that the outcome will be extremely close. The Yes camp, which includes the Irish government and the republic's two main opposition parties, are hoping for a relatively high turnout. A low turnout favors the No campaigners as their voters are traditionally more likely to turn up at polling stations.

Why are so many Irish people prepared to vote against the treaty, given how well Ireland has done economically out of the EU?

The reasons for voting No are as complex as the disparate forces opposing the Lisbon treaty. Pro-free market groups like Libertas and individual Irish senators claim the deal will lead to tax harmonization and take away the republic's advantage as a low capital tax haven that has attracted foreign, mainly US multinational investment and fed the Celtic tiger. Traditional nationalists led by Sinn F?in argue that ratifying the treaty severely dilutes Ireland's sovereignty. Along with the far left, they also claim that the treaty will commit Irish troops to future EU defence plans and thus end the state's neutrality. Ireland is not and never has been a member of Nato. The Catholic right meanwhile also opposes treaty, claiming that a strengthened European court of justice will overrule Irish laws such as the republic's outright ban on abortion.

What are the implications for Europe's 490 million citizens if the Irish vote No?

It will mean one of two things. Either the EU will exempt Ireland from the treaty for now and then invite to join at a later date (this would mean the republic having to hold a second referendum as they did with the Nice treaty) or all the EU states would be obliged renegotiate a brand new deal with its inevitable endless round of bartering between the member states. It would, either way, be a severe setback to the whole process of reforming EU structures and preparing for further expansion if Ireland fails to ratify the treaty.

What will the domestic impact be if there is a No vote?

Defeat in the referendum would be a major setback for the new Irish Taoiseach, Brian Cowen, coming just weeks after he succeeded Bertie Ahern as Ireland's prime minister. Conversely, a victory for the No campaign would be a boost for Sinn F?in, which suffered significant losses in last year's general election. Sinn F?in is the only party represented in the Dail, or Irish parliament, which is opposed to the Lisbon treaty.

How would Ireland be perceived in Europe if its electorate reject the deal hammered out in Lisbon?

France's foreign minister, Bernard Kouchner, has warned that there would be "gigantic incomprehension" across the EU if Ireland votes No. Privately, senior Irish government strategists admit that failure to ratify the treaty would be deeply embarrassing and a body blow to the credibility of Ireland in Europe. They argue that slowing up the process of EU reform would fatally weaken Ireland's influence.

Would a No vote mean the Irish have become a nation of Eurosceptics?

Not necessarily. Even some of opponents of the treaty are keen to stress that they do not advocate pulling out of the EU entirely. Only a fringe element of Irish politics, both on the far right and extreme left, are in favor of withdrawing from the union. The Irish government hopes it will not have to return to the negotiating table and explain to its European partners why their electorate derailed the Lisbon initiative. Their greatest "enemy" over the next 24 hours could be the apathy of what commentators call "middle Ireland" (which is generally pro-European) and their potential failure to turn out to vote.