CIA Chief Claims Al-qaida Essentially Defeated in Iraq and Saudi Arabia

The CIA changed direction again today in its assessment of al-Qaida, claiming it has been essentially defeated in Iraq and Saudi Arabia and is on the defensive throughout most of the rest of the world.

The upbeat assessment comes less than a year after US intelligence reported that al-Qaida had rebuilt its strength around the world and was well-placed to launch fresh attacks.

But, in an interview with the Washington Post published this morning, Michael Hayden, the CIA director, said: "On balance, we are doing pretty well. Near strategic defeat of al-Qaida in Iraq. Near strategic defeat for al-Qaida in Saudi Arabia. Significant setbacks for al-Qaida globally - and here I'm going to use the word 'ideologically', as a lot of the Islamic world pushes back on their form of Islam."

Hayden cited US success in using Predator drones to strike against suspected al-Qaida leaders in Pakistan, including the killings this year of Abu Laith al-Libi and Abu Sulayman al-Jazairi.

Hayden said: "The ability to kill and capture key members of al-Qaida continues, and keeps them off balance - even in their best safe haven along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border,"

He added that capturing Osama bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, still at large seven years after 9/11, remained a top priority.

Various US intelligence analysts, while accepting that al-Qaida has suffered various setbacks, questioned whether this would be permanent and noted al-Qaida activity in Afghanistan and continuing plots against European targets.

Mike Scheur, the former chief of the CIA's Osama bin Laden unit, said it may be that Hayden's comments may be aimed at trying to exploit recent outbursts by Muslim clerics against al-Qaida.

He added that Hayden had a reputation within the agency for being frank and honest but these comments might put a dent in it.

"The stuff on the ground that you can measure does not look like a strategic defeat for al-Qaida. When you look on the ground, they are expanding in the Levant and across North Africa. They have fought the US to a standstill in Iraq and Afghanistan and Osama bin Laden has not been caught. They have the initiative in Afghanistan."

Vincent Cannistraro, former chief of operations and analysis at the CIA's counter-terrorist center, said Hayden was going public about a consensus reached within the agency about six weeks ago that al-Qaida had been weakened.

"The question is whether it is permanent or not. There is no real agreement on that," he said.

Although it was an embarrassment for the US that neither bin laden or Zawahiri had been caught, Cannistraro said, there is a lot of intelligence about Zawahiri, mainly because he is more publicity hungry than bin Laden.

"There is intelligence about where he (Zawahiri) has been but they no real time intelligence. They are about 24-48 hours behind him," he said, adding that they were closing in too on bin Laden.

Jarret Brachman, director of research at West Point's Combating Terrorism Center, said he agreed with Hayden about successes in Saudi Arabia and Iraq

"Nonetheless, we must recognize their organization is capable of re-surging if given sufficient breathing space. We must also recognize that AQ's senior leadership has called their wars in Iraq and Afghanistan the most important areas of focus for their movement. AQ will not go down quietly," Brachman said.