Q&A: China's Climate Change Plans

What has China announced?China has issued a national plan on what it plans to do about climate change. It vows to tackle its growing emissions of greenhouse gases through energy saving, changes to agricultural practices and planting forests. But it has insisted that its startling rate of economic growth must continue, and that it will not adopt any environmental measures that may interfere. Specifically, it says it will not take on binding targets to reduce its emissions. Ma Kai, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, which steers climate change policy, said: "The ramifications of limiting the development of developing countries would be even more serious than those from climate change. China will not commit to any quantified emissions reduction targets, but that does not mean we will not assume responsibilities in responding to climate change."

Why is it important?China's booming economy is based on increased access to cheap electricity, the bulk of which is generated by burning through its massive coal stocks. Within a year, the country's expansion in fossil fuel use is forecast to see it overtake the United States as the world's single biggest polluter, though the US' per capita emissions rate will remain higher than China by a considerable margin. Experts are concerned that China's increased carbon pollution will swamp attempts made by Britain and other developed countries to avoid the worst effects of climate change by cutting emissions.

What does it mean?China is worried that the developed nations, particularly the US, will use fears over climate change as cover to force through steps that will limit its economic growth. President George Bush used a similar argument for refusing to ratify the Kyoto protocol. With the scientific case for action now overwhelming, and political leaders due to meet for the G8 summit this week, this announcement sends a clear signal that Beijing will not be steered towards binding targets. British negotiators say fixed targets were never on the agenda for China, though they do want Chinese industry to take more responsibility, perhaps through voluntary carbon trading schemes.

What about the US? President Bush last week performed an apparent U-turn on global warming, calling for global talks to establish a new framework and a goal for emissions reductions. But beyond the rhetoric, little appears to have changed. Critics argue that his promise that the US will lead talks to establish a new framework for action undermines an existing United Nations process, which seems the only realistic route given the pressing need for an agreement for when the Kyoto protocol expires in 2012. At best, they say, President Bush could stifle progress until after he leaves office. At worst, he could scupper the UN process altogether. US officials insist the results of their discussions will feed into the UN negotiations.

What now? All sides of the G8 climate talks have made their opening gambits, and all are broadly in line with their previous thinking. That could spell problems for the Europeans, and Tony Blair in particular, who really need a significant shift from the US, partly to make sure any future agreement can drive through meaningful emission reductions, and partly as a sweetener to keep China on board.