Possible Outcomes of the Pennsylvania Primary

Hillary Clinton beats Barack Obama in today's Pennsylvania primary by more than 10% of the voteA 10% victory margin has become the benchmark that would make it a good night for Clinton because she won neighboring Ohio on March 4 by 11%. Given the demographics are roughly the same, less than 10% would be seen as a slide in support. A double-digit victory will allow her to cast doubts on Obama's ability to win the big states that the Democrats have to take in November. Obama has a strong lead in North Carolina, but a win in Pennsylvania could provide Clinton with a boost in Indiana.

Clinton wins, but by less than 10%She will come under pressure from senior Democrats to stand down. Such figures will argue that there is little point in prolonging the race, especially as it could hurt the party's prospects in November.

Obama winsIt should be all over for Clinton. Although she has proved a stubborn opponent, even her allies would be hard pushed to advise her to continue.

If the race continues, what happens after Pennsylvania?The campaign moves on to Indiana and North Carolina, which vote May 6. The last nomination contests are June 3 in Montana and South Dakota, and Clinton is unlikely to pull ahead in the pledged delegate count. Instead she hopes to surpass Obama in the popular vote, and then persuade the super delegates to side with her at the convention.

Could the nomination fight go all the way to the convention?Possibly. Because of the small number of primaries remaining and the closeness of the race, neither Clinton nor Obama can secure the 2,025 delegates needed to win the race solely on the results of the state contests. As things stand, the result will be decided by the super delegates, the party insiders and elected officials who will cast their nominating votes at the convention in Denver, and who are not bound to the state results. Many have yet to commit to either candidate.