Who is Going to the Olympics Opening Ceremony?

The news that the UN secretary-general, Ban Ki-moon will not attend the Beijing opening ceremony will be taken as a signal for other dignitaries to consult their calendars for similar "scheduling issues".

There is no tradition of world leaders attending these ceremonies. In the case of Beijing, however, there was an initial rush to curry favor with an emerging superpower. Now, to China's dismay, the herd mentality seems to be going in the other direction.

Germany's Angela Merkel sent in her RSVP early, telling Beijing that she would not be there. Gordon Brown said last week that he would not be going on August 8, but Downing Street, conscious that it will be Britain's turn as host in four years' time, insisted it was not a boycott.

After much wavering, Nicolas Sarkozy now says his attendance will depend on whether Beijing enters into a dialog with the Dalai Lama. The Russians say their president elect, Dmitry Medvedev, will not announce his decision before he takes office in a month's time. His answer could be a pointer to where he plans to position himself geopolitically.

The biggest question mark now hangs over George Bush. He has publicly insisted he will be there, as a sports fan as much as a president. But all his would-be successors have called on him to make his attendance dependent on the situation in Tibet. Last week, the White House was hedging its bets, saying it is too early to predict the president's schedule.

The reviewing stands will not be empty on August 8, however. China has a lot of friends in Africa, and the rest of the developing world. But it will fall far short of the harmonious event Beijing envisaged.