Red-hot Curlin is Poser for Punters

There will be horses from 16 nations going into the stalls here tonight, but the same melting-pot atmosphere that makes the World Cup meeting so interesting to the purists can present some unusual problems for punters. The Sheema Classic alone has horses from trainers based in eight different countries. How can anyone hope to assess the relative merits of form-lines from four continents?

One option is to let a reputable ratings agency do it for you, and Timeform is among those to have tried this year. It will be interesting to see how its figures perform over the course of the six main races, but in a general sense they appear to show that there is rather less between several of the favorites and their opponents than many punters might assume.

Even Curlin (5.30), generally around a 2-5 chance for the Dubai World Cup, has only 6lb in hand of Jalil according to Timeform, and while that should be enough for him to claim the winner's £1.8m prize, it is worth noting that Jalil is lightly raced and probably improving, while Curlin will go without the medication that is considered normal in the States. Stall 12 of 13 is also not ideal for the favorite, and there are surely better bets elsewhere on the card.

The UAE Derby appears to revolve around Mike de Kock's runners, Honour Devil and Royal Vintage, who finished first and second respectively in the UAE 2,000 Guineas and then swapped places in a nine-furlong race last time out.

That form, over course and distance, appears to give Royal Vintage the edge, but De Kock seems to believe that the result was down to tactics as Honour Devil was ridden to get the trip. Now that they are sure he stays, Honour Devil (nap 2.15) is expected to prevail once again.

Two Godolphin runners, Blackat Blackitten and Elusive Warning, head the market for the Godolphin Mile, along with Diamond Stripes from the States, but again, Timeform's figures suggest there is not a lot in it, and indeed rate Gerard Butler's Baharah (1.40) 3lb clear of the field. Lack of experience is a worry after just five starts, but at 12-1 she is an each-way bet.

Frankie Dettori is not too sure he has made the right choice from Godolphin's runners in two races. Betting markets, though, tend to react as if a jockey's decision is always a 90-10 call, when it might well have been 51-49, and Creachadoir (3.55), who looked very well at Godolphin's open morning this week, could prove the point in the Dubai Duty Free.

Dettori should win the Dubai Golden Shaheen, though, as Diabolical (2.55) can deny the Americans in what is usually a benefit for their sprinters, while Mick Channon's Youmzain (4.40) looks a fair price to give Britain a winner in the Dubai Sheema Classic. There is no obvious pace in the race, which is a worry as Youmzain comes late, but his form is on a par with Viva Pataca, the Hong Kong favourite, and he is twice the price.