Future Starts Here As Ashton and England Reach the Tipping Point

Everybody knows that England will be a better team in a year's time. Less certain is the identity of the players who will be involved and the head coach who will supervise their progress. A resounding victory over Ireland today and Brian Ashton can anticipate remaining in his post. Another shambolic display à la Murrayfield and he can expect his marching orders, at which point senior Twickenham officials will either have to resign or acknowledge they have lost all credibility.

It is Ashton's very own "Argentina" moment. Losing at home to the Pumas in November 2006 was no disgrace in isolation for Andy Robinson but it came at the worst possible moment in his tenure and made his departure grimly inevitable. Abject defeat by the Irish, similarly, would snap the patience of those within the Rugby Football Union who are still shaking their heads at events in Scotland last weekend. Rob Andrew, the RFU's director of elite rugby, gave Ashton lukewarm support yesterday but his choice of words - "not something I would consider at this point" - rendered his assurances less than categoric.

Then again Andrew can hardly jettison Ashton without a backward glance, having reappointed him and his fellow coaches only last December following an exhaustive review. So it would suit all parties for England to find some belated rhythm and claim their first win over Ireland in five attempts by a margin which enabled them to sneak into second place in the final Six Nations table. If that seems fanciful, it is also possible. This is the tipping point of England's season and Ashton's entire reign and everyone knows it.

Having been around this particular block before - not least during his unsuccessful spell with Ireland - Ashton is also aware that memories can be short. England were in a World Cup final less than five months ago and last month led the potential grand slam winners Wales by 19-6 early in the third quarter at Twickenham. From where Ashton sits, a luckier run with injuries and a nice, safe clearance kick from Iain Balshaw against the Welsh would have transformed England's season. Nor is it entirely Ashton's fault that the next generation of English talent has yet to mature fully. Increasingly he resembles the man in the Jack Daniel's adverts, content to wait for as long as it takes for that gradual process to be completed.

As he also acknowledged yesterday there is little point worrying about stuff which may never happen. "Nothing's changed ... I'm perfectly happy with how I operate," said Ashton, shrugging in relatively cheerful mood. "No one's spoken to me about anything ... it's pure speculation as far as I'm concerned. How long I'm in the job is probably nothing to do with me. It's someone else's decision. The key thing is to get a big performance out of the team. I can't imagine anyone - players, supporters or management - wants a repeat of what happened last Saturday. We didn't compete at Murrayfield."

That, of course, is the whole point: no one has any idea which England will turn up. It is entirely possible that Ireland's pack will come out steaming and Ronan O'Gara and Eoin Reddan will steer their team around the field as expertly as Ruby Walsh and Tony McCoy combined.

The other scenario involves England's front five reasserting themselves as they did in Paris and Danny Cipriani giving the most daringly different display of stand-off play since Stuart Barnes was recalled at Andrew's expense against Scotland in 1993. Watching Cipriani cruise out of Twickenham in his black 4x4 yesterday, waving cheerily to all and sundry, was to suspect that big-match nerves will not affect him much. Over-ambition, if anything, will be the biggest danger and Ashton is backing his confident young wizard to wield his magic wand judiciously. "I would hate to see that maverick element disappear. Very often that's the difference between the guy who can perform at the highest level and the guy who can't."

An early test of Cipriani's nerve is inevitable if he misses a couple of goal-kicks. The cameras will inevitably pan away to a certain J Wilkinson in the stands and the doubters - including the England Saxons coach Steve Bates and Andy Gomarsall - will nod sagely. Ashton, in contrast, has been heartened by Cipriani's attitude at training, with even the more experienced forwards copping some verbal stick.

"I've been impressed by the authority he's shown," said Ashton. "He has called some of them lazy and they've responded to it." England's senior players can certainly not afford to be as off the pace as they were in Scotland. "Everyone was flat, lethargic and ponderous," conceded Simon Shaw. "We all know what we're trying to do but what we're doing on the training pitch doesn't correspond to the games. We've got Plan A covered but, when that unravels, we're struggling."

England have also preyed on opposition weaknesses in most of their big victories under Ashton, which suggests today's outcome hinges primarily on Ireland's performance. Significantly the visitors seem up for it. "On paper there's nothing left to play for but inside we all know there's a huge amount at stake," confirmed the young wing Rob Kearney. Expect a close encounter settled by the odd flash of pure genius. This week it is Cipriani who holds the key to Ashton's future, not the other way round.

England v Ireland

Today Twickenham, 3pm, BBC1

Referee Christophe Berdos (France)

15 I Balshaw Gloucester

14 P Sackey Wasps

13 J Noon Newcastle

12 T Flood Newcastle

11 L Vainikolo Gloucester

10 D Cipriani Wasps

9 R Wigglesworth Sale

1 A Sheridan Sale

2 L Mears Bath

3 P Vickery Wasps, capt

4 S Shaw Wasps

5 S Borthwick Bath

6 T Croft Leicester

7 M Lipman Bath

8 N Easter Harlequins

Replacements G Chuter (Leicester), M Stevens (Bath), B Kay (Leicester), J Haskell (Wasps), P Hodgson (London Irish), J Wilkinson (Newcastle), M Tait (Newcastle).

15 G Murphy Leicester

14 T Bowe Ulster

13 A Trimble Ulster

12 S Horgan Leinster

11 R Kearney Leinster

10 R O'Gara Munster, capt

9 E Reddan Wasps

1 M Horan Munster

2 R Best Ulster

3 J Hayes Munster

4 D O'Callaghan Munster

5 P O'Connell Munster

6 D Leamy Munster

7 D Wallace Munster

8 J Heaslip Leinster

Replacements B Jackman (Leinster), T Buckley (Munster), M O'Driscoll (Munster), S Easterby (Scarlets), P Stringer (Munster), P Wallace (Ulster), L Fitzgerald (Leinster)

Ashton v O'Sullivan: How to tell who is set for sack

What you'll see Dashing white-shirted tyro No10 hurling ball into crowd

trying groovy counter-attacking reverse dummy pass in shadow of own posts

What it means Brian Ashton sacked, Eddie O'Sullivan saved

Ball disappears from view for 10 minutes as bulky men in white shirts repeatedly fall over in large pile.

Referee eventually blows whistle

Ashton saved,O'Sullivan sacked

Man in green shirt performs theatrical try-scoring swan-dive after

jinking cross-field move. "The Ireland we've waited so long to see," crows commentator over shot of man in

charcoal suit looking steely on touchline

Ashton sacked, O'Sullivan saved

Ball slotted between posts by dashing tyro No10 followed by close-up of deposed icon quietly picking nose on replacement bench

Ashton saved,O'Sullivan sacked

Shot of lone spectator in amusing shamrock-themed green felt hat performing uncoordinated jig

Ashton sacked,O'Sullivan saved

Carrot-topped Royal personage witnessed repeatedly punching the air and shouting "Um, yeah, go for it" inside tinted-glass private box

Ashton saved,O'Sullivan sacked

Irish team described as "brave", "proud", "inspired" or "a marauding sea of rampaging green"

Ashton sacked,O'Sullivan saved

White-haired man and man in charcoal suit applaud energetically on side of pitch as players trudge off. Commentator says: "Well, in the end a 3-3 draw is probably a fair reflection of the game"

Ashton sacked,O'Sullivan sacked

Barney Ronay