The Most Powerful People in American Politics

They are now the most sought-after people in American politics. Their phones are ringing and their email accounts are full. Some bask in the glory, others are in hiding. The "super delegates" will now decide the Democratic nominee – and possibly the next president.

It is virtually impossible now for either Senator Hillary Clinton or Senator Barack Obama to win their party's nomination outright in the remaining states left in the race. The deadlock can now only be broken by persuading Democratic party super delegates to pick sides.

That has triggered a desperate scramble to woo, bully, barter with or otherwise persuade them to make a decision. "There are super delegates changing their phone numbers because they are being called so often," said Larry Haas, a former official in the Clinton White House and a political commentator.

Those calls are coming from everywhere and happening all over the country. Super delegates are a mix of party officials, elected politicians and former leaders, such as Al Gore and Bill Clinton. There are 795 of them, making up about 20% of the Democratic convention that will pick the nominee. Approximately 350 are still undecided and thus now make up the vital battleground of the contest.

Forget Pennsylvania. Think instead of someone like Crystal Strait, a 28-year-old activist in California. As head of California Young Democrats she is a super delegate. Which explains why Hillary Clinton, Bill Clinton and Chelsea Clinton have all rung her for a chat in recent days. Or Rhine McLin, mayor of the Ohio town of Dayton. In the past few weeks her voice mail service has filled up with messages: three from Hillary and two each from Bill and Chelsea. Obama and his wife Michelle have also called her. She has been visited by powerful Obama campaigners, such as Newark mayor Cory Booker who came to Dayton and took her out to lunch.

The battle for the super delegates is an astonishing piece of political theatre on which the entire race now depends. It is also likely to be a long, drawn-out affair that could drag out right up to the Democratic convention in Denver at the end of August. Party leaders have urged many of the remaining super delegates to sit tight and see how the rest of the race unfolds before making a decision. "I think that now is not the time for anybody to weigh in," said Nancy Pelosi, a Democratic congressional leader.

The situation is potentially dangerous. Many critics have lambasted the Clinton campaign for taking the fight in this direction. Clinton cannot realistically hope to end the campaign ahead of Obama. Thus the only real option left to her is to persuade enough super delegates to join her side so that she can win the convention despite having lost the popular vote. Many critics have blasted this as undemocratic and a disaster for the party. They imagine a scenario in which the first serious black contender for the White House wins the popular vote of Democrats but is denied the nomination by party insiders.

That is, however, the strategy the Clinton camp are pursuing. They are hoping to win enough support in the remaining contests to narrow the gap on Obama so that they can declare Obama's margin of victory small enough to be discounted. In the meantime, they are frantically calling super delegates and persuading them to hold off declaring their support for Obama. The campaign has more than 20 staffers working full time on the effort. It is working too. Before Clinton's wins in Ohio and Texas last week rumors swirled that about 50 super delegates were about to declare for Obama. But since her victory nearly all the remaining super delegates have remained on the fence. "They're watching and waiting," said top Clinton adviser Harold Ickes.

Some super delegates relish their new-found position of power. A group of Ohio super delegates have made it known that they will support whichever candidate best backs their views on a number of economic measures designed to protect that state's withered manufacturing sector. "The conditions exist for a lot of deals to be struck," said Professor James Gardner, an electoral law expert at the University at Buffalo.

But other super delegates have found the attention unwelcome, especially when backing the wrong candidate could end up seriously damaging your political future. For some that can be solved by simply declaring for the candidate who wins the popular vote in the super delegate's home district. McLin did that. She refused to return phone calls for either Clinton or Obama and waited until the primary was over. Dayton had voted for Obama and so she then declared her support for him too.

But for others, such as party officials and ex-leaders such as Gore and former president Jimmy Carter, there is no electorate to dictate their choice. For them the battle has become one of ideas. The Obama campaign is pointing out its lead in the popular vote, the huge crowds at Obama rallies and his appeal to independent voters. The Clintons say Obama is untested and their candidate is a proven fighter. After long years at the top of politics, the Clintons also have a formidable political machine to put into play that can call in favours across the board. That could give them a crucial advantage.

The Clinton campaign is also relying on increased media scrutiny of Obama that they hope will diminish his reputation in the long weeks of campaigning ahead. That will also be backed by the sort of negative attack campaign that proved successful for Clinton in Texas and Ohio. In a memo from the Clinton campaign circulated last week top staffers outlined the weakness of their rival and mapped out their argument to super delegates.

For many ordinary Democrats, however, the looming battle between Obama and Clinton is likely to take on a surreal air. Though millions more voters are expected to turn out in states like Mississippi, Pennsylvania, Oregon and North Carolina, the victories won in those states will only serve to bolster or defeat the pitch to the only voters who now truly matter.