A Double Act of Revenge: Carefully Planned Atrocity Strikes at Israel's Spiritual Heart

Atrocities in the Middle East are often carefully planned and the Palestinian gunman who killed eight Israelis in Jerusalem last night may have been carrying out a dual act of revenge for the recent onslaught in the Gaza Strip and the assassination of a Hizbullah commander in Damascus.

The shooting at a Jewish seminary in the west of the city, far from Palestinian areas , matters for several reasons:

· It was the first attack in Jerusalem for four years

· It seemed intended to send the message that Israel's attacks on its enemies, either in Gaza, Lebanon or Syria would not go unanswered

· It reinforced the assumption that action on one front would bring a response on another.

· It will make it harder than before to achieve progress in the near-moribund peace process.

It may have been a coincidence that the Mercaz Harav yeshiva or religious college is identified with the spiritual leadership of the Jewish settlement movement in the occupied West Bank, and especially with Gush Emunim, one of its leading elements. But Jerusalem is likely to have been deliberately chosen: there were no Palestinian attacks in the city during 2007 though the security forces claimed to have foiled many attempts. Between 2001 and 2004 it was hit frequently, with six suicide bombings on buses that killed 77 people.

Last night's was the worst incident inside Israel since April 2006. The decrease in violence has been attributed to the effectiveness of the West Bank barrier in restricting access for Palestinians.

Movement between the Palestinian and Jewish parts of Jerusalem is less strictly controlled. Initial reports suggested that the gunman - apparently acting alone - was a resident of East Jerusalem and had an Israeli ID card.

Swift international condemnation was coupled with predictable declarations of support for the faltering peace process, relaunched at Annapolis last November but bedeviled by the split in Palestinian ranks and the absence of meaningful Israeli concessions.

Israel's foreign ministry was quick to insist that the incident would not "destroy the chances of peace". Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president, condemned the attack. Abbas announced he was suspending contact with Israel after last week's violence in Gaza, in which at least 100 Palestinians (half of them civilians) and three Israelis were killed.

But he backed down on Wednesday after meeting Condoleezza Rice, the US secretary of state, and agreed talks would resume.

Hamas and Islamic Jihad welcomed the news. "It's the responsibility of those who killed 130 Palestinians in Gaza," said Abu Ahmad, an Islamic Jihad spokesman. "We congratulate those responsible for this heroic operation."

The most intriguing reaction came from Lebanon where al-Manar, Hizbullah's TV station, reported that responsibility for the attack had been claimed by a previously unknown group called The Galilee Freedom Battalions - Groups of the Martyr Imad Mughniyeh and Martyrs of Gaza. The name suggests a tendency that Middle East analysts point to: Hizbullah and Hamas, both backed by Iran and Syria, see themselves as allies who coordinate their actions.

Mughniyeh, a Hizbullah commander seen as master terrorist by the US and Israel, was assassinated in a mysterious car bombing in Damascus last month. No one claimed responsibility but Israel was widely blamed.

Hassan Nasrallah, Hizbullah's leader, pledged at the funeral that Mughniyeh would be avenged. Last night may have been his response.