Are We in for a Good June?

The Met Office is reasonably encouraging (or discouraging if you take an apocalyptic view of climate change). Summers are getting hotter and drier, with global warming in the UK occurring at twice the rate of the rest of the world. "There is a high probability (at least 70%) that mean summer temperatures will be above the 1971-2000 long-term average," it says, "and the underlying chance of an exceptionally warm summer, such as those experienced in 2003 or 2006, has increased." It puts the likelihood of a repeat of those phenomenally hot summers at one in eight, and reckons the south of England will be drier than usual.

But the Met Office prefers not to be too precise. It says it can be "deterministic" for the next day or so, but after that it gives only a rough assessment based on general trends. It will indicate what it thinks the summer (meaning June, July and August) will be like, but refuses to give advice on whether a barbecue on, say, Sunday June 17 would be sensible.

Its rival, Weather Commerce Ltd, has fewer qualms. While admitting that forecasting the coming month can only be a "best guess", it is willing to go into remarkable detail. "The month will begin dry and sunny with chilly nights," says director David Roberts. "It will then get warmer, with scattered heavy, thundery showers, and after a cooler period in the second week, there will be increasing amounts of sunshine and rising temperatures. This summery spell will give way to showers from the west, with an unsettled period around the solstice, but the month will end fine with high pressure dominating."

So there we have it. Sustained good weather will arrive just in time for Wimbledon, the strawberries will taste wonderful, and we won't have to watch some bloke rushing out to stop play every half hour because of drizzle.