Demise of Al-qaida's 'number Three'

If Abu Laith al-Libi is indeed dead, then there is a certain inevitability to his sudden demise.

The Libyan militant has lived dangerously for nearly two decades, starting his career in militant groups in his homeland before turning to operations in Saudi Arabia in the mid-90s.

In 1999 or thereabouts Libi, believed to be aged in his 40s, surfaced in Afghanistan, operating as both a field commander and later a spokesman for al-Qaida. His most recent post was his most dangerous to date.

Security services believe he was al-Qaida's "number three" or their "director of operations". Such hierarchical terminology may not best communicate the nature of the phenomenon that is al-Qaida but nonetheless it is clear that such a role is in many ways the riskiest one in the organization.

As far as anyone can make out given the necessarily opaque nature of these things, it involves translating the strategic decisions made by the higher command of Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri into real action, dealing with volunteers from all over the world, liaising with the Taliban and a variety of other groups and organizing the dissemination of propaganda.

The number three is thus the highest figure to be directly exposed - as the series of well-known al-Qaida figures including Khaled Sheik Mohammed, Abu Zubaydah and Abu Hadi al-Iraqi can now testify to their American jailers - to enemy action.

Is the loss of such men a grave problem to al-Qaida? Not immediately. Someone else will step forward to do the job. Al-Qaida have no shortage of willing volunteers. Yet there is a steady degradation of the core team of senior, experienced and highly competent militants who came together in Afghanistan in the late 90s.

Eventually it is likely that Bin Laden and Zawahiri will be caught or killed. The generation of militants who became active in the late 80s and early 90s will have been taken out of operation. Sadly a new generation, perhaps not under the formal banner of al-Qaida, will be ready to take their place.