Giuliani Falters in Florida

Rudy Giuliani's hopes of becoming the next US president effectively ended tonight after exit polls suggested a poor showing in the Florida primary in which he had invested almost all his time and effort.

Responding to questions about whether he would remain in the race, he said: "Wednesday morning, we'll make a decision." The next scheduled event is a Republican televised debate in California tomorrow.

The exit polls suggest it was a catastrophic mistake to adopt an unconventional strategy for the early caucuses and primaries. Unlike his rivals, Giuliani chose to ignore the traditional campaign schedule that begins with Iowa and continues through New Hampshire and South Carolina.

He opted instead for a "big states" strategy, concentrating on Florida.

Giuliani knew on Monday, if not earlier, his hopes of securing the Republican nomination were dashed. He stopped off at various airfields round Florida for rallies that had long been organized by his staff, but the turnout at each was embarrassing.

At Fort Lauderdale, there were only 100 and Giuliani, ignoring the tradition of eve-of-poll rousing speeches, gave a short speech and departed to kill time in a nearby hangar.

Delivering the speech, he sounded down, all the gusto and exuberance with which he launched his campaign in 2006 gone. It was the same at other airfield stops. The supposed high point of his campaign attracted such small crowds they were outnumbered by journalists two to one.

The former New York mayor had anticipated taking Florida, helped by the large number of ex-residents from that city who retired to the state, and then going on to win New York, New Jersey and California on Super Tuesday, February 5.

But by the time his rivals arrived in Florida 10 days ago from a highly competitive contest in South Carolina, they had built up momentum and media exposure denied to Giuliani sitting it out in Florida.

The former New York mayor had banked on having a near-full war chest at a time when his rivals' funds would have been depleted, but their wins elsewhere brought in fresh funding and it was Giuliani who ended up struggling to compete financially. He spent less than Mitt Romney and John McCain on advertising in the final week.

There was more to it than just a flawed strategy. He had spent 60 days campaigning in the state but Republican voters in Florida looked at him and decided they did not like what they saw.

That was in line with a poll of New Yorkers last year in which they indicated they did not like him much either. He had to contend with negative stories about his time as mayor: personal abuse of staff, temper tantrums and his relationship with Bernard Kerik, the former New York police commissioner under federal investigation over alleged fraud.

It is a long fall for Giuliani. He enjoyed a clear lead over his rivals for much of last year, often by a margin of two to one. He hoped the reputation he established in the immediate aftermath of 9/11, rallying the public in way that contrasted with the lack of leadership in the White House, would see him through.

He spoke repeatedly about 9/11 and claimed he was best placed to deal with terrorism and best placed to take on Hillary Clinton. But this was outweighed for socially conservative Republicans by what they saw as his soft positions on abortion, gay rights and gun laws. The fact that he was married three times did not go down well with them either.