Clintons Underestimated South Carolina's Significance

Barack Obama got his own back last night. After a week of being pummeled by Bill and Hillary Clinton, he won more than twice as many votes as his nearest rival entering the Super Tuesday contests on a far more equal footing than had been anticipated.

The Clinton camp, even as far back as New Hampshire, had written off South Carolina, recognizing that the demographics favored Obama. African-American voters make up about 50% of the electorate.

Clinton spent only two days in the state - and left as the votes were still being counted to hold a campaign event in Tennessee, one of the 22 states being contested on February 5.

But the epic scale of Obama's victory in South Carolina now forces the Clintons to readjust their strategy. So too does the changed dynamic of the race. Edwards' poor third place showing now reduces the field of Democratic contenders to two: Obama and Clinton.

The Clintons had calculated that they could afford to give up South Carolina to focus on the February 5 contests. They also figured a negative campaign spearheaded by Bill Clinton could damage Obama's appeal as an inspirational candidate.

But both those strategies appeared to have backfired, and Obama's strong win - despite the negative and divisive campaign - could further convince Democrats of his elect ability going into Super Tuesday.

Even with Bill Clinton leading the charge, Obama managed to reaffirm his ability to inspire a new generation of voters, helping to produce South Carolina's record turnout. He was quick to seize the moment last night with a speech that returned his campaign to the themes of unity and change.

"I did not travel around this state to see a white South Carolina or a black South Carolina. I saw South Carolina," he said in his victory speech.

However, the problem for Obama ahead of Super Tuesday is that his victory - though impressive - was not diverse. Nearly 80% of his support came from African Americans, and only about 20% from white voters.

Hillary Clinton, despite her poor second place finish, had more evenly distributed support. She got about 60% of her support from African American voters, and 40% from white voters.

But, like Obama, last night's results expose the narrowness of her own support. Clinton performed poorly among white male voters. Even her core support - women voters - also showed signs of weakness, with African-American women voters supporting Obama in equal numbers as African-American men.

With her distant second place finish, Clinton must now reconsider the effectiveness of seeking to marginalize Obama as an African-American candidate. The use of race appears to have consolidated African-American support for Obama without producing the wholesale migration of white voters to Clinton. In South Carolina, she shared the white vote with John Edwards.

On the surface, both candidates go into the Super Tuesday contests with two primary wins apiece. Obama had wins in Iowa and South Carolina. Clinton claimed hers in New Hampshire and Nevada. But Obama's wins were much more convincing.

The question now is whether Obama or Clinton will benefit as the Democratic campaign for the White House is reduced to a two-person race. Both will take votes that in a three-way race would have gone to Edwards but Clinton may be the main beneficiary, attracting more of the white, blue-collar electorate than Obama.

But the night was Obama's. Clinton is still favorite to emerge on top on Super Tuesday.

But the scale of his win last night means she cannot take it for granted and the contest is almost certain to continue well beyond February 5.