McCain Looks to Florida to Consolidate His Lead

John McCain will seek over the coming week to convert the boost he received in his important victory in South Carolina on Saturday into a commanding lead in the Republican race for presidential nomination, with all eyes now on the Florida primary on January 29.

The senator for Arizona has pulled ahead of his rivals by a hair's breadth, being the only Republican candidate to have won two competitive elections. After New Hampshire, he took South Carolina, the first primary held in the South, by 33%, to 30% for Mike Huckabee, 16% for Fred Thompson, and Mitt Romney on 15%.

Romney can also claim momentum from his win in Nevada on Saturday, where he took more than half the votes and left the rest of the field trailing. But in reality that result was far less significant: Romney was backed by the quarter of the voters in Saturday's Republican contest who share his Mormon faith, making it a special case, and the state was largely uncontested by other Republicans.

The South Carolina result was a huge personal triumph for McCain, whose bid for the presidential nomination in 2000 collapsed when he lost the state against George Bush. He told his supporters on Saturday night: "It took us a while, but what's eight years among friends?"

As the so-called gateway to the South, South Carolina holds particular resonance for the Republican party. Since Ronald Reagan in 1980 all its presidential candidates have taken the state.

Further good news for McCain can be found in exit polls which suggest he is starting to pull away from Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas. The polls showed that while Huckabee, a Baptist minister, performed well among evangelicals, with 40% of their vote, McCain did quite well too - taking 27%. Huckabee did badly among non-evangelicals,and if that pattern were replicated, Huckabee would be fenced into the Southern bible belt.

McCain will also draw succor from exit polls that showed he did best among those voters who consider terrorism and national security their main priority. That sets up a head-to-head in Florida between him and Rudy Giuliani. Giuliani, the self-styled hero of 9/11, has been pursuing an unorthodox approach by ignoring early state contests. Having been the clear Republican frontrunner for more than a year, his ratings have fallen in recent months and he must now win Florida to stay in the race. Polls suggest the state is evenly divided between Giuliani, McCain, Huckabee and Romney.

McCain also faces a challenge from Romney, who has won more states than any other candidate - Wyoming, Michigan and Nevada. The former governor of Massachusetts is positioning himself to benefit from mounting economic anxieties.

Two other factors render premature any suggestion that McCain has the nomination sewn up. The first is that his finances have been depleted by the early races, and there is little time for fund raising before Florida and Super Tuesday on February 5. Romney, by contrast, can draw on his huge personal wealth to continue lavish TV spending, which is key in larger, delegate-rich states such as Florida, California and New York where candidates cannot hope to reach voters on the stump.

The other issue is that McCain has relied on independent voters. Several key states on February 5 do not allow independents to vote.

The field has begun to thin out, with Duncan Hunter quitting the race and Fred Thompson expected to drop out soon.