Jobs to Dominate Michigan for Republicans

The ailing US economy is set to jump to the top of the Republican agenda in the race for the White House as the candidates go head-to-head in the Michigan, the rustbelt state suffering from job losses and increasing poverty.

Mitt Romney, John McCain and Mike Huckabee are slugging it out in Michigan, which holds its primary on Tuesday. Detroit, the most populous city in the state, is synonymous with America's car industry but has seen a steady decline in jobs in the face of overseas competition.

Romney desperately needs to win Michigan, where he was born and raised, to resurrect his bid for the Republican nomination after being defeated first in Iowa and then New Hampshire.

He suspended advertising campaigns in South Carolina and Florida to divert all his resources into a media blitz in Michigan.

McCain, having beat Romney in New Hampshire, hopes to knock him out in Michigan too. On the campaign trail in Michigan, McCain acknowledged the shift in emphasis away from national security issues to the economy. He stressed economic policy on stops in Michigan more than he did in either Iowa or New Hampshire, both relatively prosperous.

"I understand how tough the economy is here ... but I've got to give you a little straight talk. Some of these jobs are not coming back," he said.

He offered instead the prospect, as president, of introducing retraining schemes, particularly in potentially new green technology jobs.

America's troubled economy, with job losses, falling house prices and rising oil costs, grew as an issue during the contests in Iowa and New Hampshire. Michigan is among the states taking the brunt of America's economic troubles, with the country on the verge of recession and the worst jobless figures in five years published last week.

In Detroit, the unemployment rate is around 14%, with at least a third of the population living below the poverty line.

Economists are predicting that the US could fall into recession this year. Last week's poor job figures came on top of the mortgage crisis, a downturn in the construction industry and rising oil costs. There were signs over Christmas that Americans are cutting back on spending.

President George Bush, after months of denial, last week acknowledged the country could be in difficulty: "We can't take economic growth for granted."

The Federal Bank has cut interest rates three times since September in an attempt to ward off recession.

Recent polls in Michigan have suggested that the state remains in a three-way dead heat between Romney, McCain and Mike Huckabee. Despite Romney's ability to outspend his opponents across the state, drawing on his huge personal wealth, he so far appears to have failed to put any distance between them.

Romney has been blanketing Michigan with his television adverts - a crucial campaigning tool in a state that is far too large for the candidates to be able to reach voters in the flesh. His message has focused on his experience as a manager, both as former governor of Massachusetts and as a company chief executive in the private sector.

In recent speeches he has emphasized his close connections with the car industry in Michigan, where General Motors, Ford and Chrysler are all struggling against fierce foreign competition.

"It's an industry I know well, and I recognise that when Michigan is hurting, it is a precursor of what could happen to the country," he said.

That is a plausible strategy, given the degree of anxiety in Michigan about the economy which is expected to get worse before it gets better. "Romney does have credentials that other candidates lack," said Vincent Hutchings, a political scientist at the University of Michigan at Ann Arbor.

Hutchings said the rustbelt region's economic woes, exacerbated in Michigan by the dire state of the car industry, was dominating the political debate. "It's the big issue, and it's unclear who it is going to benefit most. Given Huckabee's populist image it might work to his advantage."

The Michigan race was initially expected to be between McCain and Romney. Huckabee, who is leading the polls in South Carolina where he is travelling on a bus bearing the logo 'Faith, family and freedom', could also have an impact in Michigan, appealing to large constituency of Christian evangelicals and social conservatives in the rural, as well as urban, areas.

McCain's campaign team fear the size of Michigan, and the lack of face-to-face meetings with the electorate, could count against their candidate. Charles Black, a senior strategist for McCain, said that town hall meetings were possible in South Carolina but tough to do in Michigan.

McCain could be helped in Michigan, as he was in New Hampshire, by independents. While only registered Republicans can vote in most of their primaries, Michigan, like New Hampshire, allows independents and even Democrats to take part.