Competition Goes Nationwide for Democrats and Republicans

With the victories of the two comeback kids, Hillary Clinton and John McCain, in New Hampshire last night, both the Democratic and Republican race for nomination as presidential candidate has become a fight to the death. For months the competition has been concentrated on just two states: New Hampshire and Iowa which voted last week. Now it scatters into numerous battlefields across the US:

Michigan January 15

All but Clinton on the Democratic side have boycotted this primary in protest at the state's unilateral decision to stage it so early in the election cycle. As the only name on the ballot, it's inevitable that Clinton will bag the race - though many Democratic supporters are angry at the lack of choice.

Republicans are fully contesting Michigan. Mitt Romney needs to win here if he is to claw himself back as a contender. He has an advantage over the renascent McCain in that his father was a three-term governor of the state. On the other hand, the economic troubles of this heavily industrialised rust-belt region may swing independents towards the economically more liberal McCain who beat George Bush in Michigan in an election upset in 2000.

Nevada January 19

Bearing in mind the Michigan boycott, this will be the next big test for the Democrats. Barack Obama needs to come back with a hit here in order to prevent any chance of Clinton's boost from New Hampshire turning into a rout. John Edwards also hopes to do well here to keep his hopes alive. But with Las Vegas being the fastest growing region of the US, this is a volatile population that cannot be predicted.

Republicans have paid scant attention to this race, which could work to the advantage of Rudy Giuliani, whose strategy of waiting for the larger primary races is in danger of unravelling before it even begins.

South Carolina January 19 and 26

Obama will be in Charleston tomorrow morning holding a rally that will kick-start his bid to take South Carolina on January 26. How he fares against Clinton may largely depend on which candidate secures the black vote, which accounts for about half of Democratic primary voters. Against Obama's bid to be the first African-American president is ranged the Clintons' positive reputation in the black community. Republicans will remember that this was the state that gave George Bush a route to the White House despite his defeat in Iowa. About 40% of Republican voters are evangelicals, which should help the Southern Baptist minister Mike Huckabee when they go to the polls on January 19.

Florida January 29

Giuliani, the former mayor of New York and self-styled hero of 9/11, has staked all on Florida. If he doesn't win here, and win convincingly, his strategy of betting on the later bigger states will go down as a prime example of political Harikiri. The idea is that his greater name recognition, gained largely from his actions on the day the twin towers were brought down, together with his superior spending power on TV ads, will blow away the opposition. But by then McCain, or Huckabee, or Romney could have become invincible.

Democrats have by-passed Florida in protest at its early election.

Super-duper Tuesday, February 5

Last night's results in New Hampshire could put even more focus on the super-duper Tuesday, as it is now possible that neither party will have a clear frontrunner by that date. More than 20 states go to the polls, including the enormously powerful (by dint of the large number of delegates they hold) California, Illinois, New Jersey and New York. With so much ground to cover, candidates from both parties will be looking to make an impact through clever TV advertising, media coverage and sophisticated organizing on the ground. Everything is up for grabs - even in New York, Clinton's senatorial sate, where Obama has been campaigning ferociously.