How the Hippos Turned on the Cheetahs: Two Men Hold Kenya's Fate in Their Hands

Five years ago, after a landslide victory put Mwai Kibaki in power, a vast crowd gathered in Nairobi's Uhuru Park to hear their new president vow to purge corruption. The departing president's convoy was pelted with mud and Daniel arap Moi was jeered with cries of "thief" by Kenyans who had triumphantly flexed their electoral muscles. Some called it their "second liberation".

Two years ago, Kenya's voters demonstrated their independence once again, by giving Kibaki a bloody nose in a referendum to extend his powers.

The tragedy of Kenya's 2007 elections is that it nearly completed the revolution that began in 2002. A relatively youthful opposition, which cut across ethnic lines, was sweeping the board - and the political victims included men like David Mwiraria, who was implicated in corruption, Nicholas Biwott, one of Moi's most feared ally, and the former president's son, Gideon Moi. There was talk of elderly hippos being overtaken by young cheetahs. It smelled like a new era.

Instead, it appears that a government caught napping by a groundswell of opposition support has tried to interfere with the result at the last minute. There are parallels across Africa. In Ethiopia in 2005 the opposition made dramatic gains, but was denied power amid claims that the vote was tampered with after the polls had closed. Similarly, Nigeria's 2007 elections were criticised for large-scale rigging.

There is speculation in Kenya that the ruling party may have sought to manipulate the electoral commission before the poll, but election monitors' reports point to meddling with the vote tallying.

Kenya has set the worst of examples.

The violence is even more dismaying. The government's claim yesterday that it is "well-planned, financed and rehearsed" by the opposition was exaggerated. Kenya is not Rwanda, and this is no orchestrated genocide. But there may be a grain of truth in the claim that the opposition Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) has a role in the bloodshed.

Kenya, in common with many impoverished developing world countries, has plenty of young thugs available for hire. David Anderson, director of the African Studies Centre at St Antony's College, Oxford, said, "The ODM is causing as many fires to break out in as many places as possible so the government is kept on the run and forced to come to the negotiating table. Raila [Odinga] is saying he doesn't want violence. That may be true in his heart - but not in his head."

Kenya's future lies with two men who were once allies. In 2002, Odinga, now opposition leader, helped Kibaki win. By 2005, he led a cabinet rebellion against Kibaki, quitting power to call for a No vote in the referendum.

Odinga ostensibly quit on a point of principle, but he was also frustrated at his lack of influence in government and felt he had been cheated. That history makes it unlikely that he will gladly seek a compromise now.

Kibaki unquestionably has a fine mind. He was top of his class at Uganda's respected Makerere University and a scholarship student at LSE. He was in a car accident and suffered a stroke on the eve of the 2002 election, forcing him to slow down. His skillful grassroots campaigning in the run-up to this election has tempered his aloof image, but he remains a distant president, even compared with the autocratic Moi.

Now 76, his style of government has been to surround himself with a trusted cabal. Some believe this clique is now egging him on.

Tom Cargill, Africa program manager at Chatham House, said: "The big problem is that Kibaki is being pushed more than he's pushing. On the other hand Odinga is getting old and knows this is his last shot. He feels outraged - he thought he had it."

Five years ago, Kibaki was inaugurated as president in the park where Prince Philip handed power to Jomo Kenyatta in 1963, ceremonially ending British rule. After this election result, Odinga called for a million people to march on the same park today. Unless a compromise is reached, Uhuru Park could see blood and tears replace the joy of 2002.