Republicans and Democrats Face Dead Heat on Eve of Iowa

Republican and Democratic contenders to replace George Bush in the White House go into tomorrow's first real test of public opinion with final polls showing both contests in a dead-heat.

Tens of thousands of volunteers scoured Iowa today for potential voters as the candidates issued their final appeals in one of the most open and hotly contested campaigns of the last 100 years.

"Both races are getting tighter as the caucuses get closer," pollster John Zogby said.

His poll, which is updated daily, showed Barack Obama gaining 2% overnight and Hillary Clinton dropping 2%, putting the Democratic front-runners on 28% each. John Edwards polled 26%, which, given the polling margin of error, amounts to a statistical dead heat.

The Republican race is proving equally unpredictable, with Mitt Romney eating into Mike Huckabee's lead. The poll put Huckabee on 28%, Romney on 26% and John McCain and Fred Thompson both on 12%. McCain has done little campaigning in Iowa, concentrating instead on New Hampshire, which holds its primary next week and where he is enjoying a resurgence.

Polls suggest many potential caucus-goers will not make up their minds until tonight.

In her final advert before the Iowa caucus, aired today, Clinton said: "After all the town meetings, the pie and coffee, it all comes down to this: Who is ready to be president and ready to start solving the big challenges we face on day one."

She added: "I know you have waited a long time for a president who could hear you and see you. I would like to be that president. So I ask you to caucus for me tomorrow. Put on your coats and call up a friend and help me change America."

The question is whether the excitement generated by the campaign, with the potential to put the first woman in the White House or the first African-American, will translate into voter turnout.

Obama has a strong appeal among young, first-time voters, who in previous caucuses have often expressed enthusiasm for a candidate but failed to turn out on the night. Clinton and Obama's campaign team have disputed projections about the number of new voters likely to turn out, with the former predicting lower numbers than the latter.

The turnout could be boosted by the weather. A blizzard, as in the 1972 caucuses, or even a sudden drop in temperature, always likely in Iowa, could prove as decisive as voter appeal but the National Weather Service predicted a relatively benign night for these parts, around the freezing mark but dry.

Volunteers from the Clinton campaign are to salt ice and dig out snow to help get supporters to the caucus.

All the candidates began campaigning early yesterday but none as early as Edwards, who made his first appearance at 2.15am at the home of a volunteer in Creston and followed it up with a pancake breakfast at 5.15am with supporters in Centerville.

"It's hand-to-hand, neighbour-to-neighbour, house-to-house and precinct-to-precinct combat right now," Gordon Fischer, former chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party and an Obama supporter, told Reuters.

"This is by far the biggest voter turnout effort in Iowa history," he said. "Everything is bigger by a factor of 10."

The candidates have spent millions of dollars in the state, recruiting huge staffs, and making regular visits as part of campaigning that has been under way for at least 12 months, building up to tonight.

Obama has 37 field offices around the state, Clinton 34 and Edwards 25. Thousands of volunteers from other states have arrived over the last few days to help with the final push.

Echoing Fischer, Steve Hillebrand, Obama's deputy campaign director, when asked to compare this campaign with Al Gore's in 2000, said: "This is 300 times more intense."

The Edwards campaign on Monday sent 1,000 canvassers across 48 different locations and has 51 phone banks operating across the state with hundreds of volunteers. His campaign has mailed or hand-delivered 200,000 copies of an 80-page book outlining his policies.