What Now for Pakistan?

The bullets and bomb that killed Benazir Bhutto also put Pakistan's future in jeopardy. The effort to return the country to democracy is now clearly in intensive care.

The elections due on January 8 are very much in question. Bhutto's supporters in the Pakistan People's party (PPP) have taken to the streets, convinced that Pervez Musharraf's government and the Pakistani intelligence services either had a hand in the killing, or failed to do enough to prevent it.

Bhutto was killed in the heart of Musharraf's support base, and immediately after her security advisor had complained that she had been offered lackadaisical official protection. The former prime minister had been the target of an earlier assassination attempt in October, and had accused conservatives in the government of abetting her attackers.

If the protests by her supporters last more than a few days and mutate into serious unrest, Musharraf will be tempted to reimpose the state of emergency he lifted only a few days ago. That could serve to fuel the protests further, creating a dangerously unstable spiral.

The decision on the elections is also in the hands of Nawaz Sharif, Bhutto's great political rival. He had vowed to boycott the elections but will now reassess that choice. His aides said last night that a final decision would only be taken after the funeral.

The PPP itself will have to decide what to do in the absence of its charismatic all-powerful leader. In the short term it is likely to benefit from an outpouring of public sympathy, but in the longer term, it does not have a unifying leader who can channel that momentum. Bhutto had blocked the rise of any political heirs apparent, and it will take some time for a credible replacement to emerge.

For all those reasons, the elections could well be put off. The question then is whether Pakistan's precarious balance can be maintained in the interim.

Islamist extremists will be blamed for Bhutto's murder along with the government and in the short term their support will be cut further as a result, but in the longer term they could benefit from the removal of a woman who was arguably their most potent and determined opponent.

"An important liberal and moderate leader has been lost. There will be a lot of sympathy for the PPP, but whatever way you look at it, it is a serious setback for the liberal moderate cause," Hasan Askari Rizvi, a military analyst based in Lahore, said today.

Benazir Bhutto's short-lived and ill-fated return to Pakistan was the result of a delicate deal with Musharraf, brokered by both the US and Britain. Bhutto had corruption charges against her dropped and in return her participation in the political process gave credibility to Musharraf's continued rule as president.

"The political destinies of Musharraf and Benazir Bhutto were seen increasingly as interlocked," Farzana Shaikh, an analyst at the Chatham House think tank, said. "The question now is whether, with one of them permanently removed, can the other survive - can Musharraf continue at the helm?"

The answer to that depends in part on his successor as army chief, Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, who is a protégé of the president but who must now consider whether his mentor has become an impediment to stability.

"He will listen carefully to what Musharraf has to say, but his decision will be geared to security interests of the army, and the country," Shaikh said.

Pakistan's president today blamed Bhutto's murder on religious extremists. These were the same extremists Musharraf always claimed to be able to control. It was the central justification for his perseverance in power, yet the assassination and the rising tide of political violence sweeping Pakistan suggests he has failed in that defining mission.