Controversial Figure With a Populist Gift

Whatever else is said about Jacob Zuma - the man who thought a shower prevented HIV infection, and who said that a woman he was accused of raping asked for sex because of the way she was dressed - no one is underestimating his political prowess any more.

Two years ago, Zuma, 65, was widely written off after President Thabo Mbeki sacked him as South Africa's deputy president over corruption allegations. He was acquitted at the rape trial but his views on Aids and women seemed to do nothing for his standing.

But Zuma has worked his way back to defeat Mbeki for control of the ANC, and have a shot at becoming South Africa's next president, by connecting with ordinary voters, a large part of the ruling party's base and the trade unions in a way that Mbeki has never been able to.

Zuma joined the ANC at 17, and then its military wing, Umkhonto we Sizwe (MK). He was arrested by the apartheid-era police and jailed for 10 years on Robben Island alongside Nelson Mandela.

On his release he fled South Africa for Swaziland and Mozambique where he rose to become head of MK's intelligence branch. He returned home shortly after the ANC was unbanned in 1990.

The contrasts with Mbeki have been important in Zuma's comeback. He lacks formal education and the outgoing president's intellect, but does not want for confidence. He is comfortable not only in his own skin but wearing a leopard's while wielding a ceremonial stick. Mbeki rarely wears traditional dress and is so obsessed with race that some have speculated about an inferiority complex.

Zuma's opponents have painted him as a left wing firebrand. He has embraced the trade unions, which have condemned Mbeki's market-oriented economics. He has appeared at a Communist party meeting wearing a cowboy hat with a hammer and sickle badge.

However, he has studiously avoided economic policy statements and pointed out that it is the party that decides financial strategy not one man. In recent weeks, Zuma has flown to the US and Europe to reassure foreign investors there will not be dramatic economic policy changes.

But there is a strong chance that Zuma's fightback could be for nothing. The corruption allegations against him - that he took bribes from an arms company - are serious and extensive. If he is charged, many of his backers in the ANC will quickly pull away. A conviction would probably spell the end of the comeback for good.