General's Last Stand

Like General George Custer, General Pervez Musharraf has got himself surrounded - and is looking for a way out. Pakistan's famous Indian-fighter, who gained prominence in the 1999 Kargil conflict with Delhi, is under hostile fire from the opposition, the professional classes, the judiciary, the mullahs and the media. The US, Britain, the UN, the EU and the Commonwealth are all shooting arrows. Now even Benazir Bhutto is demanding his scalp.

Bhutto, recently returned leader of the Pakistan People's party, had been all set for an arranged marriage with the errant general. Under the plan, he would be civilian president; she would be prime minister. George Bush had given his blessing. It was all fixed - which was part of the problem.

But after being bombed, detained, insulted and generally abused, the bride-to-be claims everything is off. "It's time for him to go," she declared this week, adding that she may boycott planned general elections. In reality, Bhutto was upstaged by her own supporters. She underestimated the depth of animosity to what Sherry Rehman, PPP spokeswoman, calls "this shabby junta".

Yet time will tell whether the split is final. Musharraf accused his estranged partner of being "confrontational" and "preposterous". But in an interview yesterday he said he could still work with Bhutto, and would meet one of her main demands by standing down as army chief this month.

US leverage will be critical as the crisis peaks. Alarmed at the myriad implications for the fight against al-Qaida, Nato's war in Afghanistan, and the US "freedom agenda", Bush has sidelined Condoleezza Rice, whose phone calls and advice Musharraf mostly ignored. Instead he has ordered John Negroponte, Rice's hard-headed state department deputy, to lift the siege of Islamabad - and maybe patch up the rift with Bhutto. He is expected to arrive with diplomatic guns blazing.

Diplomats predict much arm-twisting ahead. Negroponte will try to defuse the crisis by persuading Musharraf to end emergency rule quickly and appoint a neutral caretaker government; by inducing Bhutto to come back to the table; and by setting a firm election schedule - in other words, the same old plan.

Some other options look even less appealing, and less workable. Elections held under martial law would lack credibility. But continuing indefinitely as things are is not an option. Nawaz Sharif, Imran Khan and other opponents are already signalling an intention to team up with Bhutto in some sort of "united front". That could presage uncontrollable nationwide street unrest.

The general is plainly betting that he will be able to carry on as a president in civvies and is waiting for a tamed supreme court to validate his recent re-election; this is his equivalent of Custer's last stand. But his unpopularity, and his recent misjudgments, may yet defeat him. That leaves him with one last option and one he says is considering - resignation.

If he goes, he will want guarantees against prosecution and persecution of the kind meted out to Bhutto and Sharif. He may also find, like them, that only exile offers security. Speaking to Sky News, Musharraf said he would consider quitting if "balance and stability" were assured and an elected government were in place - or even if his departure would assist those aims.

"In my heart, I am not a dictator," he said. "We must have elections. I must handle the uniform issue... Now, the choice after that is whether I should stay at all ... Maybe I take that decision, OK?"