Taiwan Squeezed As Us and China Negotiate

As the US increasingly looks to China for help over tackling problem issues such as Iran, Burma and Darfur, concern is growing in Taiwan that the island's sole international protector may be dropping its guard. The de facto independence of Taiwan, viewed by Beijing as a renegade province, depends in the last resort on American defensive guarantees and arms supplies. Yet despite expanded collaboration with Washington in other areas, China remains engaged in a rapid military build-up along the Taiwan Strait.

According to Taiwan's president, Chen Shui-ban, China now has 988 missiles aimed at Taiwanese targets and is continually adding to its arsenal. Chen, who strongly opposes unification and the communists' "one China" mantra, recently described Beijing as a threat to regional peace and said it was preparing to take the island by force by 2015. Last month China said it had deployed a high-performance radar system designed to complement its surface-to-air missiles and jet fighter interceptors.

Robert Gates, the US defense secretary, questioned the build-up during a visit to Beijing last week. The two sides agreed to create a military hot line to help defuse crises. But Gates' overriding stated priority was securing China's backing for steps to curb Iran's nuclear activities. On Taiwan, he merely reiterated Washington's formulaic support for maintaining the status quo.

While the US frequently encourages Taiwan to buy new and secondhand American weaponry, to be better able to defend itself, it has criticized Taipei's indigenous development of the long-range Hsiung Feng cruise missile, which it, and China, view as an offensive weapon. Chen was recently obliged to pledge to "consult" Washington before firing the missiles. US fears about fueling cross-strait tensions, stoked by Beijing, also appear to have delayed Taiwan's purchase of 66 state-of-the-art, US-made F16 fighters.

Taiwanese officials say China has become adept at manipulating the Bush administration. "They are under pressure from China. China is very clever. If they want to do something on Taiwan, they call the White House and tell the Americans that Taiwan is rocking the boat. Then the US government puts pressure on us," a senior official said. "Of course we are afraid about the growing cooperation between the US and China. It's a problem for us. It is definitely squeezing Taiwan."

Political factors are also straining Taipei-Washington ties as Taiwan moves towards next year's contentious legislative and presidential elections, in January and March respectively. Chen, who is standing down after two terms, is determined to hold a national referendum before he goes on changing the country's official name - Republic of China - to the more familiar Taiwan. The plan is then to apply for UN membership.

Poll watchers say the referendum proposal, opposed by the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) but backed by the ruling Democratic Progressive party (DPP) and three million signatures, is likely to pass. That prospect infuriates China, which rightly sees the vote as a ploy to emphasize Taiwan's separateness, and alarms the US.

To shared consternation in Washington and Beijing, relations between Taiwan and the mainland are emerging as the key election issue. While the DPP's presidential candidate, Frank Hsieh, generally favors measures to strengthen Taiwan's separate identity, Ma Ying-jeou, his KMT rival, says he would seek a peace treaty with China and deepen investment, trade and transport links. For his pains Ma has been accused of lack of patriotism.

In a sign of how deep the political divisions run, Taiwan and China have even fallen out over next year's Beijing Olympics. Following an enormous row, the Olympic torch relay will not now pass through Taiwan. Instead the DPP launched its own torch processions, highlighting both the UN bid - and the bitter gulf between the two sides.