Upbeat Us Military Claims It Has Forced Al-qaida Out of Iraqi Capital

The US military has painted its most upbeat assessment yet of security in the Iraqi capital, claiming it has forced the most extreme of the insurgent groups, Al-Qaida in Mesopotamia, out of every neighbourhood in Baghdad, and has cut the number of murders by 80%.

In a move described as over-optimistic by some observers, Major-General Joseph Fil, commander of the US forces in Baghdad, told reporters that the clear-out of extremists would make it easier for the US military to reduce its presence in the city from next year.

Speaking to reporters in the Iraqi capital, Gen Fil said "there's just no question" that violence had declined since a rise in June. He said: "Murder victims are down 80% from where they were at the peak." He added: "The Iraqi people have decided that they've had it up to here with violence."

The US has been providing arms to militia groups in Baghdad and elsewhere to take on al-Qaida. Gen Fil's comments are in line with recent US assessments that there have been improvements in security, albeit often marginal. But European defence analysts cautioned against rushing to premature judgments. One, speaking on condition of anonymity, described Gen Fil's assessment as "wildly optimistic" and warned that there was a danger of his words "coming back to bite him".

Two years ago the US declared the road between the centre of Baghdad and the international airport to be safe, only to be followed a few weeks later by a series of attacks.

Al-Qaida in Mesopotamia, a Sunni group buttressed with foreign jihadists, has been behind some of the biggest suicide bombings in Iraq. Its attacks on Shia civilians have alienated many Iraqis.

Gen Fil's assessment about improved security was immediately undermined by an announcement by the Iraqi prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, that he had given up trying to bring the country's largest Sunni Muslim political block back into his coalition government. The Accordance Front withdrew its six ministers from the cabinet in August. The US military and Bush administration officials have said repeatedly that peace cannot be achieved by military means alone and that a political settlement is crucial.

The Pentagon is also privately worried about the British withdrawal from the streets of Basra, allowing Shia militia groups to fight it out for control of the province. The US command's assessment is that armour is needed to impose order and Iraqi forces who have taken responsibility for security do not have it.

The number of US troops in Iraq and Kuwait stands at 154,000, up by 30,000 as a result of a troop surge ordered by President George Bush in January. The US military expects to begin withdrawing next spring. Gen Fil said: "I think there is going to come a day when certainly we will need [fewer] coalition troops in Baghdad."

The death toll for American troops this year is already the worst since the invasion, but the Pentagon attributes this to increased confrontation with insurgents in the spring as part of the surge strategy, and the trend during the past five months has been downwards.

Among various factors contributing to US optimism is that hundreds, possibly thousands, of Iraqis have abandoned safe havens in Syria to return home. Tahsin al-Sheikhly, an Iraqi government spokesman, said 46,030 displaced Iraqis had returned last month from outside the country to their homes in the capital.

However, in contrast to the US optimism, the Iraqi Red Crescent said the number of internally displaced people in Iraq had more than quadrupled during the past year, reaching 2.3 million by the end of September.