Q&A: Turkey and the Kurds

Who are the PKK?

Founded in the 1970s, the PKK launched an armed struggle against the Turkish government in 1984, calling for an independent Kurdish state within Turkey. It has since watered down its demands, calling for more cultural rights for Turkey's estimated 15 million Kurds and the release of imprisoned PKK members.

It suffered a blow in 1999 when its leader, Abdullah Ocalan, was arrested. Last year, Mr Ocalan released a statement from his jail on Imrali island, south of Istanbul, calling for the PKK to begin an unconditional ceasefire after a recent upsurge of violence. More than 30,000 people have died since the conflict began. The PKK is estimated to have about 3,000 fighters in northern Iraq.

How popular is the PKK among Turkey's Kurds?

Although Turkey's ruling Justice and Development (AK) party has recently made political gains in the south-east, many Kurds - and the EU - say the government needs to do a lot more to improve the rights of the country's Kurdish minority. The PKK remains popular with many people there.

The Kurds have a long history of suppression. Estimated to number between 20 million and 25 million, they are the fourth-largest ethnic group in the Middle East and form the most numerous stateless people in the world, spread over regions of Syria, Turkey, Iran and Iraq. According to one of their sayings, they have "no friends but the mountains".

Why has the PKK stepped up its attacks?

The PKK resumed its violent campaign in 2004 and the fighting has been escalating steadily despite several unilateral ceasefires. Two recent attacks - the killing of 13 Turkish soldiers in a single clash and the killing of 12 civilians in a bus ambush - were regarded as being among the worst in recent years, and then came the deaths of the 17 soldiers and 32 rebels on Sunday. The PKK seems to be deliberately goading the Turkish military to launch an attack in the knowledge that such action would damage Turkey's relations with the US and Europe at a time when Ankara is seeking EU membership.

Will Turkey retaliate?

Even before the latest casualties, the Turkish prime minister, Tayyip Erdogan, was coming under strong pressure from the military to order a cross-border offensive against PKK rebels in northern Iraq. "Enough is enough," the nationalist newspaper Cumhuriyet said in a headline. "We are all conscripts," said the religious-leaning daily Yeni Safak.

Last week, Turkey's parliament gave the green light for the military to enter Iraq to hunt down the rebels, who have bases high up in remote and rugged mountain areas. But Mr Erdogan knows there would be huge costs. The US has been pleading with the Turks not to take action that could cause turmoil in Iraq's autonomous Kurdish region, one of the country's few stable areas.

What has been the impact of past incursions?

Previous major attacks have failed to crush the PKK and they are still able to strike against Turkish forces with deadly effect. Turkey has been pressing the US and the Iraqi authorities for years to clamp down on PKK rebels, including its leaders. But Iraqi Kurds, while calling on the PKK to lay down their arms in favor of political struggle, are loath to hand over their fellow Kurds to Turkey. The Iraqi president, Jalal Talabani, who is a Kurd, said yesterday: "We will not hand any Kurd over to Turkey, not even a Kurdish cat."

What is Turkey likely to do?

There are reports that Turkey's generals have drawn up plans to establish a 15-mile buffer zone along the Iraqi side of the border. In fact, Turkish troops have already been there for more than a decade, with the tacit agreement of the Kurdish authorities. Given the risks of an invasion of northern Iraq, the Turkish government is likely to resort to limited cross-border operations rather than launch a major offensive.

Kurdish leaders also point out the heavy economic costs, as Turkish companies are among the biggest investors in Iraqi Kurdistan and so it would not be in Turkey's interest to destabilize the region. But if the PKK inflicts further heavy casualties on Turkish troops, rational calculations may well be thrown out of the window.