Opposition on Brink of Power in Poland

Poland's liberal opposition party appeared to be cruising towards a major election upset last night, with indications of a resounding victory at the ballot box that would put an end to the two-year rule of the Kaczynski twin brothers.

The populist nationalist government of the prime minister, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, whose identical twin Lech is Polish president, looked to be heading for defeat by the liberal conservatives of the Civic Platform or PO, led by Donald Tusk, after the prime minister engineered the collapse of his coalition and called a general election two years early.

Unofficial projections for a Polish television channel indicated that PO was well ahead of Mr Kaczynski's Law and Justice party (PiS) by early evening, by 44% to 31%, although voting had not yet ended and it was not clear how accurate the projections would be.

The margin predicted, however, confirmed the most recent opinion polls ahead of the elections, giving Mr Tusk a 10-point lead over the governing party.

Yesterday's election was widely seen as the most crucial since the anti-communist revolution of 1989.

If the liberal conservative opposition wins, it will seek to form a coalition with the small Peasants' party, tipped to get around 7%. If such a coalition can muster a majority in the 460-seat lower house of parliament, it will mean an abrupt shift in direction away from Mr Kaczynski's aggressive nationalism and the manufacture of domestic enemies.

Mr Kaczynski has been prime minister for only 15 months, but in that period has pursued robust policies using the courts, the police and the intelligence services to root out perceived corruption and target opponents. Abroad he has alienated the rest of Europe, attacked Germany relentlessly and picked fights with Moscow.

EU leaders are keen to see Mr Kaczynski defeated, Washington perhaps less so since Mr Kaczynski welcomes deploying US interceptor rockets in Poland as part of the Pentagon's missile shield program. While the PO is also in favor of missile defense in Poland, it will seek to drive a harder bargain with Washington.

A Tusk-led coalition would also aim for an "economic miracle" in Poland, harnessing buoyant economic growth to slash taxes and try to attract back many of the 2 million Poles who have emigrated since Poland joined the EU in 2004 and the Kaczynskis took power in 2005.

The early signs last night were that the prime minister, widely seen as the most formidable operator in Polish politics, had badly miscalculated in calling an election only halfway through his four-year term. He hoped to strengthen his support base and gain four more years to pursue his "moral revolution" against post-communist sleaze. Critics say his campaign was selective and abused for political ends.

Even if Mr Tusk wins as crushing a victory as being projected yesterday, he will face problems in governing from the other half of the Kaczynski double act. President Lech Kaczynski has pledged to block government legislation if his twin brother loses and it is unlikely that Mr Tusk's majority will be enough to override presidential vetoes.