Turkey and Us Head for Showdown Over Vote on Armenian 'genocide'

Turkey and the US were heading for a diplomatic showdown today over a Congressional vote on whether it should recognize as genocide the 1915 killings of Christian Armenians by Muslim Turks

Turkish politicians have warned of grave consequences if the House of Representatives endorses the bill, which is opposed by the Bush administration.

Yesterday the Turkish president, Abdullah Gul, warned of "serious troubles in the two countries' relations" if the measure is approved.

The threats come as the Turkish government seeks parliamentary approval for a cross-border military operation to pursue separatist Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq. The move, which is opposed by the US, could open a new front in the most stable part of Iraq.

Turkish MPs in Washington yesterday put their case to members of the House of Representatives' foreign affairs committee.

"I have been trying to warn the lawmakers not to make a historic mistake," said Egemen Bagis, a Turkish MP and close foreign policy adviser to the prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

"Let us not forget that 75% of all supplies to your troops in Iraq go through Turkey."

Many in the US fear for the crucial supply routes through Turkey to Iraq and Afghanistan, and the closure of Incirlik, a strategic air base in Turkey used by the US air force.

A measure of the potential fallout from the vote came in a warning to American citizens in Ankara issued by the US embassy in Ankara.

The statement said: "If, despite the administration's concerted efforts against this resolution, it passes committee and makes its way to the floor of the House for debate and a possible vote, there could be a reaction in the form of demonstrations and other manifestations of anti-Americanism throughout Turkey."

The genocide label is an ultra-sensitive issue in Turkey. It has long claimed that mass killings at the time by both sides were part of the civil upheavals accompanying the collapse of the Ottoman empire.

Ankara cut military ties with Paris last year when France voted to make it a crime to deny the killings as genocide.

The bill appears to have a thin majority on the foreign affairs committee. But some supporters fear that Turkish pressure could narrow the margin further. Most Republicans are expected to vote against.

Armenians and most western historians believe the events of 1915 to have been genocide. Estimates of the dead range up to 1.5 million people. Turkey blame the deaths on civil war, disease and famine, with casualties on both sides.

Yesterday Bryan Ardouny, the executive director of the Armenian Assembly of America, sought to shore up support in letters to the committee's chairman, Democratic representative Tom Lantos of California and Republican member, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, of Florida.

"We have a unique opportunity in this Congress, while there are still survivors of the Armenian genocide living among us, to irrevocably and unequivocally reaffirm this fact of history," he wrote.

But Egemen Bagis said the resolution would make it hard for Ankara to continue close cooperation with the US and resist calls from the Turkish public to pursue Kurdish rebels over the border.

"If the Armenian genocide resolution passes, then I think that the possibility of a cross-border operation is very high," said Ihsan Dagi, a professor of international relations at Middle East Technical University in Ankara.