Bruised Leeds Looking to Buck the Noble Effect

Tony Smith must improve on an awful recent coaching record against Wigan's Brian Noble at Headingley tonight to avoid an abrupt end to his four seasons with Leeds. The final eliminator against the Warriors gives Leeds a second chance to reach the grand final at Old Trafford, having lost 10-8 to St Helens in a brutal qualifying semi-final last weekend.

However, the Rhinos have already lost three times to Wigan this season, making it seven wins out of eight for Noble against the Australian, who was appointed to succeed him as Great Britain coach and will take on that job full-time when the Rhinos' 2007 campaign ends.

Smith would also be happy to gloss over the pair's contrasting record in play-offs - he has lost four out of seven in the past four years, whereas Noble has won 12 out of 14, his only defeats coming in the 2002 and 2004 grand finals.

The most persuasive explanation for such a discrepancy is Smith's reliance on homegrown talent in the pivotal play making positions. In contrast Noble has looked for more experienced decision-makers from further afield. Henry and Robbie Paul, Iestyn Harris and Paul Deacon all played key roles at half-back as Bradford made five consecutive grand final appearances under Noble from 2001, and the overseas combination of Thomas Leuluai and Trent Barrett has steered Wigan from sixth in the final table to within 80 minutes of Old Trafford this autumn.

In contrast Leeds have looked to Rob Burrow, Danny McGuire and Kevin Sinfield, three products of their academy system, to provide the necessary blend of creativity and composure. However at St Helens last week they were again lacking in both areas, and the magnificent efforts of forwards such as Jamie Peacock and Gareth Ellis went unrewarded.

The crucial questions tonight concern the ability of the Rhinos pack to drag their battered bodies through another grueling contest and whether their play makers will use that platform more effectively. "It's about managing energy levels at this stage," said Noble, whose team have come through sudden-death wins at Bradford (31-30) and Hull (21-18).

A 6,000-strong traveling support, many of them wearing fake mustaches in tribute to the five Wigan players who have not shaved since their last defeat on August 5, will reduce Leeds' home advantage. But Wigan will miss their wing Mark Calderwood, who broke his ankle at Hull on Saturday, and have a doubt over their Kiwi prop Iafeta Paleaaesina.

Leeds are favorites to give Smith a rare victory over Noble, and the chance to sign off in style next Saturday night. But given Wigan's growing belief and their coach's play-off record, nobody is writing off the chances of a Wigan-St Helen's finale.

TV: Sky Sports 1, 7.30pm