Violence in Afghanistan Has Soared By 30%, Un Report Says

An alarming surge in suicide attacks has fueled a 30% rise in violence in Afghanistan this year, according to the UN.

This year has seen an average of 550 violent incidents a month compared with 425 in 2006, a report by the Department of Safety and Security said.

The past 10 days have been a sobering indicator of the trend - almost 300 people have died in coalition air strikes, roadside ambushes and suicide bombings.

The bloodshed is in stark contrast with Iraq, where the death rate has been steadily falling, partly due to a US troop surge. There are 40,000 foreign troops in Afghanistan and more than 175,000 in Iraq.

Brutality has become a hallmark of the insurgency. This week the Taliban hanged a 15-year-old boy from an electrical pole in Helmand, stuffing dollar bills into his mouth and accusing him of being a spy.

In Kabul last Saturday 30 people died after a suicide bomber boarded a bus transporting Afghan army recruits. A second attack on Tuesday killed 17 people on a police bus, including a mother and four children.

In the south, Nato and American-led forces are gaining large military victories, sometimes claiming hundreds of Taliban deaths a day. But the insurgents have adapted to the western military superiority by focusing on low-intensity, high-impact attacks in civilian areas. "The battles with western forces are incredibly lopsided. But the Taliban probably consider they are winning," said Seth Jones, an analyst with the Rand Corporation.

The UN report contradicts recent upbeat statements by President George Bush and his Afghan counterpart, Hamid Karzai, in New York. Now Mr Karzai and western officials are discussing a previously unthinkable prospect - negotiation with the enemy.

Last Saturday Mr Karzai repeated his offer of talks with the Taliban's one-eyed leader Mullah Muhammad Omar, referring to him as "esteemed" instead of the usual boilerplate "enemy of Afghanistan". But the overture was swiftly rebuffed.

"The Taliban will never negotiate with the Afghan government in the presence of foreign troops," spokesman Qari Yousef Ahmadi told Associated Press. A Karzai spokesman said it was "a process that would take some time".

Analysts say the Taliban have a two-pronged strategy: to re-establish their authority over the southern provinces around their former headquarters in Kandahar and to destabilize a ring of provinces around Kabul.

"They are trying to split Kandahar from the north," said a western military official in the region. A senior British commander admitted to a recent visitor that Nato controlled "at most" 20% of southern Afghanistan.

Rear bases in Baluchistan in neighbouring Pakistan also play a key role. "To the degree there's any central leadership it's based out of Quetta," said Mr Jones, referring to the Baluchi capital.

A western official with access to intelligence files said it was "absolutely true" that some Pakistani officials were helping the Taliban.

"There are clearly people in the ISI [intelligence agency] and the military who help out. They make it a romantic thing: the Pashtuns who haven't been defeated since Alexander the Great," he said.

But the official said that President General Pervez Musharraf had been a "pretty good ally" in the fight against militancy, and that the assistance to the Taliban was limited to a small number of officials.

Mr Karzai's most urgent problem is his own lack of authority. Rampant drug smuggling and government corruption have badly eroded faith in his leadership in the worst affected areas.

"The Taliban are not particularly popular. It's just that people are completely fed up with the government," said Mr Jones.