Clear Leader Emerges in Race to Be Japanese Pm

Yasuo Fukuda today emerged as the clear favorite in the race to become Japan's next prime minister as party colleagues sought a clean break with the troubled administration of the outgoing leader, Shinzo Abe.

Mr Fukuda, a softly spoken moderate, is expected to beat his only opponent, the former foreign minister Taro Aso, when MPs and members of the Liberal Democratic party (LDP) vote on Sunday.

Whoever wins is assured of becoming prime minister because of the LDP's comfortable majority in the lower house of parliament.

Polls published today show that Mr Fukuda, 71, surged ahead of his rival over the weekend after securing the support of the LDP's biggest factions.

In a poll in the Yomiuri Shimbun daily newspaper, more than half of the LDP's 387 MPs indicated they would vote for Mr Fukuda. Early indications are that a large number of the 141 representatives of the party's prefectural chapters will also support him.

Mr Aso was initially considered the favourite to succeed Mr Abe, who resigned suddenly last week amid health fears and gridlock over his plans to extend Japan's refueling mission in support of US forces operating in Afghanistan, a measure the opposition parties have vowed to block in the upper house.

But support for Mr Aso, an outspoken nationalist, quickly fell away after he revealed he had known of Mr Abe's departure two days before his resignation. Many LDP colleagues believe he should have tried harder to persuade Mr Abe to stay on and avoid plunging the party into its current turmoil.

Mr Abe, who was admitted to a hospital in Tokyo last Thursday suffering from a gastrointestinal illness and exhaustion, is expected to remain there for the rest of this week.

Mr Aso, 66, is also paying the price for his close association with Mr Abe, while Mr Fukuda, who played no part in the prime minister's scandal-blighted administration, is regarded as better placed to offer a fresh start for the troubled ruling party.

Mr Fukuda vowed to build on recent improvements on relations with China, saying he would not visit Yasukuni, a controversial war shrine in Tokyo.

Both candidates agreed on the need to pressure North Korea into resolving the abductions of Japanese nationals by Pyongyang spies during the cold war, but Mr Fukuda appeared the more eager to negotiate: "We must not close the road to talks," he said. "We must show that we are willing to have discussions."

Whoever wins must first attempt to forge an agreement on the refuelling mission with Ichiro Ozawa, whose Democratic party, along with smaller parties, controls the upper house.

Reports said today that the ambassadors of Britain, the US and eight other nations were to brief MPs in Tokyo on the importance of Japan's continued support for the US-led war on terror.

"Our relationship with the US is the cornerstone of Japan's foreign policy," Mr Fukuda said. "We must explain the importance of this mission very carefully to the public."

The government has the option of pushing through the extension by passing it a second time in the lower house with a two-thirds majority, a move Mr Fukuda said he would consider only as a last resort.

Some analysts believe the bill will not even get that far. "If they railroad the new anti-terror law through the lower house, they will be crucified by the media and the public," said Takao Toshikawa, a political commentator. "The bill is likely to be canceled, just as Mr Ozawa has demanded."

Yesterday Mr Aso conceded that his leadership bid was likely to fail. "But if I drop out, the party would be criticized as having chosen a prime minister through back room deals," he said in a television interview. "I have decided to run, if only for the sake of holding an open election."

Mr Fukuda did not enter politics until he was 53 after a career in the oil industry, but he hails from solid political stock: his father, Takeo Fukuda, was prime minister in the late 1970s.

Under Junichiro Koizumi, he became the longest-serving government spokesman, conducting his daily press conferences with a mixture of clinical efficiency and deadpan humor.

Away from the cameras, he is known to strike fear into colleagues with his fiery temper. Political journalists talk of the time when, as chief cabinet secretary, he kicked a rubbish bin across his office during a heated exchange with his then deputy, Shinzo Abe.

While Mr Aso counts sailing and reading manga comics as his hobbies, Mr Fukuda prefers listening to classical music, accompanied by a decent bottle of wine.