Exit Polls Show Greek Centre-right in Lead

The Greek prime minister's gamble of calling an early election appeared last night to have paid off with initial exit polls showing his conservative party emerging as the victor with 42.2% of the vote despite widespread anger over the government's handling of the deadly forest fires last month.

Costas Karamanlis had a landslide win in March 2004, sweeping aside almost 20 years of uninterrupted Socialist rule. Although the current projections are far smaller, if correct they would give the prime minister's New Democracy party an overall majority in the 300-seat House.

George Papandreou's main opposition Socialist party, Pasok, was in second place yesterday with 38.5% of the vote. "It appears New Democracy will form a governing majority," said the outgoing health minister, Dimitris Avramopoulos. "The size of the majority will not affect how effective our government is - even with 151 deputies in parliament, we will proceed with our reform program."

The election, called six months ahead of schedule, had been seen as crucial for the potentially painful economic and social changes Greece must enact if it is to keep pace with other EU partners.

During their first term in power the free-market New Democrats were roundly criticized for their tardiness in forging ahead with politically costly but much-needed modernizing reforms.

With pre-election polls indicating that Greeks would cast protest ballots in favor of smaller parties following the fires - which left 65 dead and the government reeling from accusations of incompetency - the conservatives had feared they would not win a working majority.

Instead, the fate of Mr Karamanlis, 51, and Mr Papandreou, 55, both scions of political dynasties that have governed Greece for decades, appeared to be in the hands of undecided voters, disillusioned by the slow pace of reforms and shocked by the fires. Pollsters had estimated that undecided voters could account for as much as 24% of the electorate.

Yesterday, early results showed that smaller parties had fared better than in previous years, with the nationalist far-right Popular Orthodox Alarm (Laos) party mustering 3.5% of the vote, surpassing the required 3% threshold. It will be the first time that an extremist group, denounced for its racist, anti-Semitic and xenophobic outlook, has sat in the House since the collapse of military rule in 1974.

Analysts said the projections showed that both parties had suffered a drop in support from the last election when New Democracy got 45.4% of the vote and Pasok 40.5%. The slippage is believed linked to disenchantment with mainstream politics after exposure of the state's failings during the fires and a string of scandals that have tainted the conservatives in power.

Mr Karamanlis has vehemently ruled out entering into a coalition government, repeatedly vowing to hold fresh elections in the event of a hung parliament.